From 4000 to 5 million: The Mathematical Essence and Survival Rules of Rolling Funds in the Cryptocurrency Space
I. The Mathematical Essence of Rolling Funds: The Critical Point of Exponential Growth
1. The Precise Expression of the Compound Interest Model
S = k×(1+lr)^n
Where:
k=Initial Principal
l=Leverage Multiplier (Recommended 3-5 times)
r=Single Return Rate
n=Number of Operations
When l=3, r=5%, n=50:
Ideal Final Value = 5000×(1+0.15)^50 ≈ 5,280,000U
2. Real Market Correction Model
Actual Final Value = k×Π(1+l_i×r_i)×(1-s)^n
s=Slippage Loss Coefficient (0.2%-0.5%)
II. BTC Practical Simulation: The Stable Path of 3x Leverage
Phase Data:
1. 10000→11000 (10%)
Opening Position: 1500U (3 times)
Profit: 450U
Rolling Funds: Retain 225U profit + Add 675U
2. 11000→12100 (10%)
Principal: 3000+900=3900U
Profit: 1170U
Rolling Funds: Retain 585U + Add 1755U
7. 19487→21436 (10%)
Principal: 34,171U
Profit: 10,251U
Total Assets: 44,422U
III. Dynamic Risk Control Matrix
1. Leverage Adaptive Formula
Optimal Leverage l = (Current Volatility / Historical Volatility) × Base Leverage
When volatility exceeds 1.5 times the 20-day average, automatically reduce leverage by 50%
2. Black Swan Response Plan
(1) When a 5σ market occurs
Immediately close 30%
Set the remaining position with a 3% trailing stop loss
(2) Exchange Reserve Warning:
When the exchange's BTC balance outflow in 24h > 30,000, prohibit opening new positions
IV. Institutional-Level Operating Framework (3-Phase Model)
Z[Trend Judgment] -->|MACD Weekly Golden Cross| A
A[Initial Position Establishment] -->|3% Principal 3x Leverage| B{Profit 20%?}
B -->|Yes| C[Profit Sharing]
C -->|50% Realize 30% Rolling Funds 20% Hedge| D
B -->|No| E[8% Stop Loss]
D -->|Next Position = Initial Position × 1.5| F{Trend Continuation?}
F -->|Yes| G[Pyramid Adding Position]
F -->|No| H[Initiate Profit-Taking Protocol]
V. 2023 Real Data Review
Case Statistics (BTC 25000→45000 Cycle)
Success Rate: 11.7% (Completed more than 5 rolling funds)
Average Return Rate: 842% (Successful Traders)
Liquidation Rate: 89.3% (First 3 Operations)
Slippage Loss: Accounts for 12-18% of Total Profit
Key Discoveries:
1. Optimal Number of Rolling Funds: 5-7 times (Risk-reward ratio deteriorates beyond this)
2. Golden Time Period: 22:00-24:00 Eastern Time (Best Liquidity)
3. Top 3 Fatal Errors:
(1) Rolling funds when funding rate > 0.03%
(2) Ignoring Exchange API Delays
(3) Not Setting Stop Loss Orders
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