In the morning, I chatted in the group about the market and found that everyone is generally pessimistic about it. My feeling is that the hot money in this market is still retreating.
It’s hard to say when the turning point of the market will come, but I know one principle: as long as we continue to survive in the market, we will naturally know when the market conditions change; there's no need to carve a boat to seek a sword, nor to rely on divination or superstitions to predict the market. Even if some teachers happen to be right, they may not necessarily practice what they preach.
Most of the time, the market is a waste of time. The inertia of last year's bull market still affects most people. If one continues to use last year's investment strategies, they will face repeated failures, setbacks, and disappointments. The narrative failure will become the norm, and the market will become increasingly indifferent to stories.
Those who made big profits last year came from the right perspective on cryptocurrencies; this year, those who are losing money still come from an overly ambitious perspective or have been bottom-fishing, leading to losses from gains; profits and losses stem from the same source.
The reason the difficulty has increased, in my opinion, is:
1. The hot money in the market is still in a retreating state; the ceiling has lowered, and being overly ambitious or chasing highs can easily lead to losses. Even some opportunities that could have made money can easily turn into losses if one misses the best timing to sell or finds themselves buying at a midpoint.
2. The context is unclear. Unlike last year, when the context was right, even if one missed a chance, they could still guess the next one or have multiple betas to choose from, which was sufficient (the beta ceiling and sustainability last year might have been stronger than this year's so-called alpha targets). This year's hotspots are relatively scattered, and capturing the context is less precise than having pinpoint targeting.
"The strong never complain about the environment; adapting to the market and adjusting strategies is the key."
To briefly discuss my investment research strategy for this year:
1. Focus on meticulous research, invest a lot of time in research, and reduce trading frequency; primarily short-term; establish a good tracking table for my targets, work meticulously, and follow the progress of some bottom-priced targets to guide operations. The probability of loss in this approach is significantly lower than randomly chasing small, localized hotspots.
2. Try to capture stage-specific major hotspots and reduce PvP; there are significantly fewer stage hotspots than last year, and the difficulty of capturing them has also increased, but there are still some, such as RFC, B, Pas, labubu, etc.
[1] https://t.co/FAQaeh0zqR
[2] https://t.co/97XfZbwgT9
[3]
