In the morning, I chatted about the market in the group and found that everyone is generally pessimistic about the market. My feeling is that the hot money in this market is still retreating.
It's hard to say when the turning point of the market will come, but I know one thing: as long as we continue to survive in the market, we will naturally know when the market condition changes. There is no need to carve a boat to seek a sword, nor to rely on divination or superstitious predictions about the market. Even if some teachers get it right, they themselves may not necessarily practice what they preach.
Most of the time, the market is a waste of time. The inertia of last year's bull market still affects the majority of people. If we continue to use last year's investment strategies, we will face repeated failures, setbacks, and disappointments. Narrative failure will become the norm, and the market will increasingly ignore stories.
Those who made big money last year mostly did so because they had the right perspective on coins, while those who are losing big money this year still come from an excessive perspective; profits and losses come from the same source.
The reason why the difficulty has increased, I believe, is:
1. The hot money in the market is still in a retreating state; the ceiling has lowered, and an excessive perspective or chasing high prices can easily lead to losses. Even some opportunities that were originally profitable can turn into losses if one tries to catch the bottom.
2. The context is unclear; unlike last year, when the context was right, even if one missed one opportunity, they could guess the next one or have several betas to work with, which was enough (the beta ceiling and sustainability from last year may be stronger than this year's so-called alpha targets); this year's hotspots are relatively scattered, making it less effective to catch the context than to aim precisely.
"The strong never complain about the environment; adapting to the market and adjusting strategies is the way to go."
To briefly discuss my investment research strategy for this year:
1. Focus intensively, spend a lot of time on research, and reduce trading frequency; primarily short-term trading; establish a good tracking table for my targets, focus intensively, and follow the progress of some bottom-priced targets to guide operations. This reduces the probability of losses compared to chasing hot spots randomly.
2. Try to catch major hotspots in stages and reduce PVP; there are significantly fewer stage hotspots than last year, and the difficulty of catching them has increased, but there are still some, such as RFC, B, Pas, labubu.
[1] https://t.co/FAQaeh17gp
[2] https://t.co/97XfZbwOIH
[3]
