The market has been discussing whether the current situation resembles the second half of 2021—when Bitcoin fell sharply right after reaching a new high.
I actually heard similar opinions earlier. At that time, Bitcoin had just broken the 110,000 new high, yet the market sentiment was not enthusiastic; the trend superficially resembled 2021, but the background and trend were completely different.
The main force understands human nature well, creating bearish candles and downward spikes when the market is generally worried, making us believe that the market has peaked, thereby undermining our confidence. But essentially, the main force cannot change the bull-bear cycle; they can only guide market sentiment through candlesticks, making the trend look like 'the previous peak.'
From a trend perspective, Bitcoin shows no signs of peaking: the weekly chart did not show a 'peak surge,' and there are no signs of main force selling. The upward trend line remains stable, and the second line has not been broken, indicating that the bull market trend continues. Although the candlestick closed bearish, the volume has shrunk, and the body is small, with a long lower shadow collected this week, showing strong support below.
So, overall, #Bitcoin is still in a bull market, the candlestick chart shows no significant bearish signals, and the overall industry trend is still upward, opportunities still exist.
Looking at Ethereum, although it once fell to 1400, it quickly recovered the losses. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum's rise was accompanied by volume and a large body, indicating strong bullishness. The subsequent four weeks of doji candles may appear oscillatory, but in reality, it reflects the weakness of the bearish counterattack.
After understanding the market situation, we continue to look at altcoins:
ADA
Cardano ($ADA ) has recently oscillated between 0.63 and 0.76 magnesium, with a short-term decline of 9.49%, reflecting bearish market sentiment; however, the monthly increase is still 1.96%, demonstrating some resilience. However, it has dropped 45% over six months, and the long-term trend remains under pressure.
The current price is close to the support level of 0.58; if it holds this level, it may rebound to challenge 0.83, or even reach 0.95. Conversely, if it breaks below, it may drop to 0.46.
From a technical perspective, the short-term and mid-term moving averages are entangled around 0.67~0.68, showing insufficient momentum. The RSI is at 47.8, slightly bearish; the stochastic indicator is at 56.64, which is neutral; the MACD is negative, indicating weak bullish strength. Overall, ADA may continue to consolidate within the range in the short term, waiting for a directional choice.
DOGE
$DOGE has recently maintained a downward trend, oscillating above 0.18 magnesium for the past week, lacking effective rebounds. After briefly falling below this level in the past 24 hours, it rebounded from the key support of 0.17, which has been an important support level within the downward channel since December 2024.
If Dogecoin can stabilize at 0.17 and break through the upper resistance of the channel, it is expected to attack 0.205, 0.23, or even challenge 0.3. If the price continues to hold above 0.40 USD, the long-term target may look towards 0.75 and 1 USD. However, all of this depends on whether it can successfully break through the current channel and maintain momentum.
INJ
$INJ has currently broken through key technical resistance, opening up about 20% of upward space. Multiple technical indicators support the bullish expectation: the SAR indicator shows points appearing below the price, and the bull-bear strength indicator has shown a green histogram for six consecutive days, with today being the largest, indicating enhanced bullish momentum.
If the current sentiment continues, INJ is expected to rebound; however, if investors have doubts about its profitability, the market may face a risk of correction.
To add one point: Recently, the on-chain activity of $BC has been hot!
Regarding #bc , it's actually meaningless to say more now; we can only observe the changes. Whether it can break through 30M is key: if it breaks through, the BSC chain is expected to revive; if it doesn't, it will remain the same, and the highs will be lower each time.
However, based on the current heat, according to my own logic, the previous Alpha should not be difficult, and it is likely to be fast. Let's first see how Alpha performs before discussing the next steps.
