$BTC Market Analysis

1. Market Fundamentals & Sentiment Changes

Bitcoin continues to oscillate around 105k, although there has been a short-term rebound, overall sentiment tends to be neutral to weak.

The micro sentiment indicator “Fear and Greed Index” remains neutral today, around the 50–55 range, lacking clear direction.

Overall market risk aversion persists, influenced by the weakening stock market (S&P, Nasdaq futures down about 1.5%), increasing the recent pullback pressure on BTC.

2. Key Technical Levels

Support Level: Recent price support is concentrated around 100k and 95.5k USD; if these areas are broken, the trend may continue to weaken.

Resistance Level: Resistance is seen above at ~107k USD; if it cannot break through, short-term pressure is evident.

The chart shows a typical “neckline retest” structure, with limited short-term rebound potential; if the retest fails, it may trigger further declines.

3. Derivatives Market Dynamics

Recently, large long positions have been liquidated; according to data, a nearly 100 million USD BTC long position was liquidated after falling below 100k.

There are still many short orders between 102k and 108k, forming potential support or brake points for a market shift.

4. Comprehensive Judgment: Structure is not fully bottomed

Gap Filling: The CME gap has basically been filled, posing an obstacle to short-term upside.

Liquidation Range: The next risk of long liquidation focuses on 100k–102k; if broken, additional pressure will be felt.

The area of concentrated short liquidations is around 106,039-108,129 USD (average entry price of the top two shorts on the Hyperliquid platform), while strong support for long positions is at 104,297-102,065 USD (30-day exchange net outflow cost line).

Today's market continues the neutral to weak trend, with rebounds peaking but struggling to break through. However, this is a typical pattern of the market maker's game of stop-loss and liquidation through derivatives. Combining naked K and order book analysis, focus on whether 100k–102k can hold.