Important macro data release points for next week are as follows:
Monday 22:00, U.S. April wholesale sales month-on-month;
Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May CPI data;
Wednesday 22:30, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending June 6;
Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, U.S. May PPI;
Friday 22:00, U.S. June year-ahead inflation expectations preliminary value, U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value.
About interest rate cuts:
According to federal funds futures pricing, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 45 basis points in the second half of the year (with a median expectation of 25 basis points in both September and December), where the probability of starting the first rate cut at the September FOMC meeting is 58% = (5 + 4 + 5.5) / 25. Notably, the CME FedWatch tool shows a stronger expectation for easing — this indicator shows that the probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in September has risen to 62.4%, indicating some traders are betting on earlier and more aggressive easing policies.
Current interest rate futures pricing indicates that from September 2025 to December 2026, the federal funds rate will be cumulatively lowered by 125 basis points, which means the first rate cut will mark the beginning of a new round of easing.
Historically, a decrease in interest rates has often acted as a catalyst for small-cap stocks and altcoins to strengthen.
Rally step chart
This rebound is mainly driven by spot trading and presents a stepped increase, with significant accumulation zones at $81,000 to $85,000, $93,000 to $96,000, and $102,000 to $104,000. These areas may now become supply-dense zones and may provide short-term support influenced by overall market sentiment.
Notably, top buyers in the first quarter of this year have held since prices fell below $80,000, and now as prices hover around $110,000, they face another test. This article will explore the gradually weakening momentum behind recent demand, the factors that weaken market power, and where potential support levels might appear if the market remains weak.
As long-term holders gradually exert selling pressure, the likelihood of a pullback in the short term continues to increase, especially in the absence of strong catalysts driving Bitcoin to decisively break above $111,800. During this phase of stalled bullish momentum, on-chain pricing models become important tools for identifying potential support levels during pullbacks.
Why hasn't the real crypto bull market started yet?
All major bull markets share a common point: they coincide with large-scale liquidity injections globally.
1. Interest rate cuts: Borrowing costs decrease, stimulating debt-driven economic growth
2. Quantitative easing: Central banks purchase government bonds, injecting cash into the circulation system
3. Forward guidance (commitment not to raise interest rates): Guiding expectations by indicating future low rates
4. Lowering the reserve requirement ratio: Reducing the funds banks need to hold increases the funds available for lending
5. Relaxing capital requirements: Reducing institutional constraints on risk-taking
6. Loan grace policies: Maintaining credit flow during defaults or economic downturns
7. Bank bailouts or support measures: Preventing systemic collapse and revitalizing market confidence
8. Large-scale fiscal spending: Government funds directly injected into the real economy
9. U.S. Treasury general account TGA cash release operations — releasing cash from the Treasury account into circulation to increase cash supply
10. Foreign quantitative easing policies and global liquidity: Central bank operations overseas affect the crypto market through capital flows
11. Emergency credit facility: Temporary loan programs established during crises
The bull market is still brewing
Every crypto bull market has started with: When the macro economy is in distress, a large amount of liquidity will be released.
Currently, economic pain is accumulating, but responses have yet to emerge. 11 liquidity rings remain closed. Only when economic distress forces policymakers to take action will the environment needed for a speculative frenzy truly form.
Unless significant funds flow in, the crypto market will remain fundamentally restricted, although it may continue to rise slowly.
The real bull market will begin when the liquidity rings are lit, never in advance.
Primary projects are launching:
Token name: COLL
Total token supply: 1 billion
Estimated opening price: $1-1.5
Sector: RWA
Project benchmark: ONDO
Expected launch: Three major exchanges in Q2
The primary market is the 'golden key' to discovering hundredfold coins, but it is not omnipotent. The market is full of uncertainties, and the significance of research and investment lies in helping us make more rational decisions rather than blindly chasing the myth of instant wealth. By continuously learning and practicing, you can enhance your research and investment capabilities, gaining an advantage in the crypto market to discover truly valuable projects. Hundredfold coins are not an unattainable dream but a goal that can be reached through solid project research. Every in-depth study and analysis lays the foundation for future wealth accumulation. Do not be deceived by short-term market fluctuations but focus on the long-term value and development potential of projects.