Let's break down the potential impact on both Elon Musk's and Donald Trump's empires.

*Elon Musk's Empire:*

- *SpaceX:* Trump's threat to cancel government contracts could significantly impact SpaceX's revenue. With deals worth tens of billions, including $5 billion in crew contracts with NASA and $1.8 billion with the National Reconnaissance Office, SpaceX's financials could take a hit. The potential loss of Trump's missile-defense program, Golden Dome for America, is another blow.

- *Tesla:* Tesla's market value dropped by $152.4 billion after the clash, its largest one-day loss ever. Regulatory issues, such as nationwide self-driving car rules and emissions credit sales, could further impact Tesla's profits. Falling sales in the US and Europe don't help the company's outlook.

*Donald Trump's Presidency:*

- *Bill's Fragility:* Trump's mega-bill passed the House with a narrow margin of 215-214. If three Republicans flip, the bill could collapse. Elon Musk's public criticism and claims that the bill would add $2.5 trillion to the national deficit might sway some votes.

- *Potential Backlash:* White House aides believe Musk's attacks are backfiring, pushing Republicans closer to Trump. However, Trump's allies admit it's getting harder to hold the line with Musk's online influence reaching 220.5 million followers.

*The Fallout:*

- *New Political Party:* Musk polled users on X, and over 81% of 3.5 million voters supported starting a new political party. This could split the base and potentially impact Trump's grip on the House, especially if Musk funds candidates to knock out Trump loyalists.

- *Long-term Relationships:* The standoff might damage Musk's relationships with GOP lawmakers who previously saw him as an ally. One Republican warned that Musk's outbursts are "not helpful" and could harm his long-term interests ¹.