Shiba Inu (SHIB), one of the most discussed cryptocurrencies, is currently facing significant market pressure as large holders, often referred to as whales, begin to move enormous amounts of tokens. Recently, a dormant whale — an investor who had remained inactive for a long period — transferred an impressive total of 100.45 billion SHIB tokens, worth about $1.21 million, to the Binance platform. Around the same time, more than 3.6 trillion SHIB tokens, valued at $43.6 million, were moved to Coinbase Institutional. These significant transfers occurring within a few hours have led many analysts and traders to speculate that large holders may be preparing to exit or redistribute their SHIB assets.
Historically, when dormant wallets suddenly become active, it often signals a change in market sentiment or the beginning of distribution phases where large players sell their holdings. The timing and scale of these recent transfers suggest that whales may be in the process of liquidating their SHIB, especially as retail interest seems to be waning. This combination creates a fragile environment where the price may struggle to maintain important support levels.
In addition to whale activity, retail participation seems to be declining. Transaction data reveals that small transactions, particularly those under $10, have dropped by about 12%. Meanwhile, transfers involving larger amounts — ranging from $100,000 to $1 million — have increased by over 1,600%. This striking contrast highlights a shift in market dynamics: while large investors continue to move significant amounts of SHIB, ordinary investors appear to be withdrawing or hesitating to buy. This situation is often observed during distribution phases when smart money exits and retail investors lose confidence or interest.
As a result, the price of Shiba Inu is moving near a critical support area. Currently, SHIB is trading around $0.00001225, just above a historically significant demand level near $0.00001028. This support line corresponds to a key Fibonacci retracement level, an important technical tool used by traders to identify potential price floors. Although some technical indicators, like the stochastic RSI, suggest that SHIB is oversold and could benefit from a short-term rebound, the overall momentum remains bearish. If the price falls below this support, the next major level could be around $0.00000573, representing a much deeper retracement and a considerable drop from current prices.
Another important element is the decline in SHIB reserves on exchanges. These reserves represent the total number of tokens held on exchanges and can indicate potential selling pressure on the market. Recently, SHIB reserves on exchanges fell by about 4.11%, reducing the total value of tokens held to about $1.076 billion. While the decrease in the number of tokens on exchanges may suggest less immediate selling pressure, it does not necessarily mean that the market is becoming bullish. This decline in reserves could also be due to whales transferring tokens to cold wallets, temporarily removing them from circulation. Combined with the bearish price action, this decline in reserves complicates the interpretation of the current state of the SHIB market.
The outlook for Shiba Inu is further complicated by an increase in short interest among traders. The funding rate for SHIB futures contracts recently turned negative, meaning traders are paying to maintain short positions. This scenario reflects a growing bearish sentiment, as more participants bet on a price decline. While persistent negative funding rates can sometimes precede rapid bearish price movements, they can also lead to 'short squeezes', where a rapid price increase forces short sellers to buy back their positions, temporarily pushing prices higher. For now, liquidation data indicates little forced exit, whether on long or short positions, suggesting that traders are avoiding significant leverage or have already considerably reduced it. This means that SHIB may not experience explosive price movements in the near future due to low forced pressure on the market.
In the future, Shiba Inu finds itself at a crucial crossroads. The combination of whale activity, declining retail participation, and increasing short positions paints a bearish picture. However, the fact that the price is currently near a strong demand area with oversold technical conditions and declining reserves on exchanges leaves the door open for a possible short-term rebound. Whether SHIB rebounds or breaks its support level will heavily depend on the buyers' reaction in the coming days.
If buyers step in to defend the $0.00001028 area, it could trap bearish traders and provide some relief to the market. Conversely, if the price fails to hold at this level, it could accelerate the decline, potentially pushing SHIB towards much lower Fibonacci retracement levels that have not been tested for some time. Investors should closely monitor this key support and follow market sentiment before making significant moves.
In summary, the current market environment for Shiba Inu is marked by significant whale movements, declining enthusiasm among retail investors, and growing bearish sentiment. The price faces a decisive moment as it tests a major technical support. This phase could define the direction of SHIB in the short term, so it would be wise for traders and investors to remain attentive to developments in the coming days.