#非农就业数据来袭

📊 In May, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs, which seems to be higher than expected, yet it has not dispelled the market's imagination of interest rate cuts.

🔍 The truth is——

Employment hasn't collapsed, but it is also not strong; resilience is fading, and the water is starting to boil:

The growth rate is at a two-year low;

The unemployment rate has returned to 4.0% for the first time;

But wage growth remains relatively high, and inflation pressures have not been eliminated.

This is a typical **“not bad enough but not good enough”** data report.

🧠 So, is it still possible for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term?

The conclusion is: July is basically hopeless, while September still holds some hope.

👀 Next, the market will closely watch two signals:

Will the CPI turn downward (especially core services)

Will non-farm payrolls continue to decline (particularly full-time positions)

If both are weak, then a rate cut in September will be priced in again;

If the CPI does not drop, then forget about it; the Federal Reserve would rather endure.

💬 So my point of view:

The combination of “non-farm + inflation” is the market’s “policy code”; looking at employment alone is useless.

Rate cuts are a trend, not a trading signal. Be patient and wait for the “chokehold data,” and don’t bet prematurely.