🧠 OVERVIEW

• Trading pair: BTCUSDT (Perpetual contract on Bitget exchange)

• Timeframe: 1D (Daily)

• Current price: 104,699 USDT

• Most recent candle close: Closed above the 102,400 mark → This is an important keylevel.

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🔍 PRICE STRUCTURE & IMPORTANT AREAS

1. Accumulation (Accumulation phase)

• There are two clear accumulation zones in April → leading to a strong breakout.

2. Bear Trap (Selling trap)

• After breaking above the 95.5K zone, BTC crashed back down strongly → forming a trap zone (red frame).

• There are 2 false bullish candles (false breakout) marked with circles → clear trap behavior.

• After the bear trap, the price retraces correctly to the old keylevel around 102.4K.

3. Support zone – resistance

Price level - Meaning

106,156 USDT

Nearest resistance. If surpassed, the probability of establishing a new ATH is high.

104,699 USDT

Current price. Has recovered from the bear trap.

102,406 USDT

Keylevel confirms support.

100,955 USDT

Strong support zone – if breached, it confirms a fail.

95,029 USDT

Support below, matching the 200-day MA.

📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• Price has closed above 102K4: confirms it hasn't completely crashed.

• Successful retest of the Keylevel 102K4 → this is a positive signal.

• EMA/MA:

• The orange MA line supports quite well.

• The blue EMA is trending upwards → confirms the current trend is bullish.

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🔮 FORECAST & SCENARIO

🔵 Author's expectation: In the next 2 days, there will be a daily candle closing above 106K → if correct, the chance for BTC to create a new ATH is very high.

✳️ Bullish scenario:

• BTC surpasses 106K with increased volume → confirms a true breakout.

• Nearby target: 110K → 114K → further is 120K+ (based on the main trend slope).

⚠️ Bearish scenario:

• BTC was rejected at 106K and breached 102K4 → confirms the Bear Trap failed.

• Bearish target: 100K9 → 95K → even the 200MA zone (around 93K5 – 94K1).

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✅ SUMMARY

• BTC is at an important position, has recovered well after the trap.

• Closing above 106K will open the door for a new ATH.

• The 102K4 zone is a critical keylevel.

• You should watch the price reaction around 106K, do not fomo early.

• If trading short-term (scalp or intraday), you can look to long when pulling back to 102K4–103K, placing SL below 100K9.