Recently, companies like Heng Rui, BeiGene, Elysium, and HaiChuang Pharma have been coming out one after another with good news, and the newly approved drugs are like a series of mini-programs going live, which is quite uplifting. Many people say that innovative drugs have entered the 'harvest period'.
I think we can't just listen to the hype; we need to see what the 'harvest' really is.
If there are more products that have 'passed approval', that does count as part of the harvest; but if the 'harvest' has not yet been realized in revenue and profits, we shouldn't be too optimistic. To put it simply, getting a drug on the market does not equal immediate profit. Pricing, medical insurance negotiations, distribution channels... every step is a challenge.
So, my current operational thinking is: don't chase high prices, but start to watch seriously.
📌 How to view these innovative pharmaceutical companies?
From a fundamental perspective, the moat of the innovative drug pathway is actually:
1. Technology platform (for example, does the ADC or target mechanism have uniqueness?)
2. Clinical data (are there efficacy results that exceed expectations?)
3. Commercialization capability (is there a capability to sell drugs, channels, medical insurance, doctor education?)
If an innovative pharmaceutical company has good technology but only one product in its pipeline that hasn't scaled up, I would be cautious. In contrast, I would focus on companies that already have several pipeline products and overseas BD collaborations. Going overseas and collaborating internationally is a 'vote' for domestic innovation, which is more significant than any roadshow.
🎯 ASCO Conference & Overseas BD, is it a 'short-term catalyst' or a 'long-term turning point'?
The ASCO conference is approaching, and every year at this time, it ignites excitement in the pharmaceutical sector. But how long this fire lasts depends on whether there are actual breakthroughs in the presentations.
Personally, I will pay special attention to: whether there are clinical data from Chinese pharmaceutical companies on the main forum, or whether there are big overseas BD deals. Because these two things are key to turning 'storytelling' into 'real results'.
To put it bluntly, this is not just a matter of hype, but a matter of valuation restructuring. Previously, pharmaceutical stocks seemed expensive due to uncertainties about the future; now, if we see a clear product path, it is no longer just a bet on the future.
🧠 Let's take a look at UnitedHealth in the US stock market for some reflection.
Recently, UnitedHealth came out saying that they themselves couldn't clarify whether they could make a profit. For such a giant company, if even their profit model is momentarily unclear, what should investors think?
I think this serves as a reminder for domestic pharmaceutical stocks: if a company can't even clarify whether it can make a profit, why should I bet my life on it?
Many innovative pharmaceutical companies also have this problem now: burning money on R&D and clinical trials, going through rounds of financing, yet their revenue has not materialized. I'm not saying this type of company shouldn't be invested in, but we need to recognize what stage they are in and whether they are delivering on their promises.
✅ Here’s a summary of my current operational thinking:
– Don't chase concept stocks, especially those that haven't even completed phase three clinical trials;
– Focus on companies with clear pipelines, overseas BD, and commercialization capabilities;
– Adopt a 'slow accumulation' approach, prioritize medium to long-term layout, and avoid short-term speculation;
– Pay attention to important nodes like the ASCO conference, medical insurance negotiations for short-term trades;
– If a company can't even clarify its profit model, then I won't touch it no matter how cheap it is.
🗣️ Summary:
When looking at innovative drugs, don't just ask 'can it succeed', but also ask 'can it make money after success?'. Passing approval is the first step; surviving is the ultimate victory.