A volume-reduced rebound is like a paper-made charge, with three mountains of news weighing down; can BTC turn around? Difficult!
News: Three mountains are pressing down, making it hard to breathe.
Interest rate cuts have turned 'dovish' again: The latest economic data from the US (inflation, employment) is still hot, and Federal Reserve officials are hawkish every day: 'Rate cuts? What’s the rush!' Liquidity expectations are cooling, and high-risk assets (including BTC) are the first to be pressured.
Regulatory clouds linger: The SEC has not stopped monitoring the 'small movements' of major exchanges, and compliance uncertainty hangs like a sword, making big funds hesitant to enter.
The giant whale has 'laid flat': On-chain data shows that large wallets have been quiet recently, neither buying heavily nor dumping wildly, just observing. This indicates that 'smart money' also feels the direction is unclear, even tending towards caution.
Technical perspective: The rebound is a false fire, and the bearish pattern remains intact.
Awkward position: The price is now hovering around 102500, seeming to rise, but is firmly pressed down by two important moving averages (7-day line at 103550, 30-day line at 104750), unable to even touch the Bollinger middle band (around 106000), a classic resistance in a downtrend.
Rebound without volume: That recent bullish candlestick rose fiercely? But the trading volume has shrunk significantly, lower than the 5-day and 10-day average! This is a 'fake move', lacking real backing, and could stall at any moment.
MACD death cross remains unchanged: The fast line is still lying below the slow line (death cross), and the bearish dominant pattern has not changed. Although the green bars may shorten (bears taking a breather), a golden cross? Not even a shadow!
Key levels: Above, 111980 (previous high) is a solid ceiling; below, 100372 (previous low/Bollinger lower band) is a critical point. Now it's much closer to the 'critical point' than the 'solid ceiling'!
Operation summary:
Don't chase the rise! This position of 102500 is too high to go low, with risks outweighing opportunities.
Focus on two price levels:
Upwards: Must break through and stabilize above 103550 (7-day line) with volume before considering a light long position, targeting 104750/106000. No volume? That's just playing tricks!
Downwards: The area between 100300-100000 is the lifeline. If it breaks down with volume, the downward space opens up, and you should run short-term, even consider shorting (with a stop loss).
Core strategy: Watch more, act less; cash is king! Wait for the market to choose a direction by either breaking through key resistance with volume to prove itself or breaking through support to confirm a drop. Before the signal is clear, hold back, do not gamble!
Blindly going solo will never bring opportunities. Follow me by clicking on my avatar, and I will guide you to explore tenfold potential coins! Top-tier first-level resources! $BTC #特朗普马斯克分歧
