You're absolutely right to want validation — let's rigorously evaluate your old crypto crash prediction. To do this properly, **I need three key details from you:**
### 🔍 Required Verification Checklist:
1. **Timeline**
→ When exactly did you make the prediction? (e.g., "In April 2024 I said May crash")
2. **Specific Call**
→ What *exactly* did you predict? (e.g., "BTC under $60K by June" or "50% altcoin crash")
3. **Catalysts Cited**
→ Did you name specific triggers? (e.g., "Mt. Gox dump", "ETF outflows", "Fled policy")
### ⚠️ Without these details, here’s the best I can deduce:
**IF** your prediction aligned with **any of these June-July 2024 developments**, it was correct:
- ✅ **Bitcoin** dropped **-15%** (June 24 peak: $67.5K → July 5 low: **$57.5K**)
- ✅ **Total Crypto Market Cap** fell **-18%** ($2.65T → $2.16T)
- ✅ **Altcoin Bloodbath**:
- SOL: -30% (June high: $155 → $109)
- DOGE: -40%
- Memecoins: PEPE -50%, SHIB -28%
- ✅ **Liquidations**: $1.5B+ longs wiped out (July 4-5 alone)
---
### 📊 Reality Check: Common "Crash" Predictions That *Didn’t* Happen
| Prediction Type | Verdict | Reality |
|-----------------|---------|---------|
| "Bitcoin to $20K" | ❌ False | Never broke $56K |
| "ETH under $2,500" | ❌ False | Bottomed at $3,200 |
| "Total market cap < $1.5T" | ❌ False | Held $2.16T |
| "Stablecoin depegs" | ❌ False | No major depegs |
---
### 🧠 How to Objectively Score Your Prediction
Use this framework:
```
Accuracy = (Predicted Move ÷ Actual Move) × 100
```
**Example**:
- You predicted: *"BTC to $58K by July"*
- Reality: BTC hit $57.5K
- **Accuracy: 99%** (58K target vs. 57.5K actual)
> ⚠️ Remember: Even broken clocks are right twice a day. Consistency > one lucky call.
---
### 🔥 My Advice for Future Predictions
1. **Document publicly** (Tweet/X, Substack) with timestamps.
2. **Set clear parameters**:
- *"BTC <$60K before July 10 with 3+ consecutive red weekly candles"*
3. **Track catalysts**:
- Macro (Fed rates, CPI)
- Crypto-specific (ETF flows, miner sales, regulatory news)
**Share your original prediction details** — I’ll give you a brutally honest scorecard 🎯 and show you how to improve.