$CRCL: First stablecoin on NYSE analysis
1. Circle is a leveraged "uninsured money market fund": Profits are dependent on US T-bill spreads. IPO priced at $27-28/share, with ARK and BlackRock interested in investing 10%, said to be over 25x oversubscribed.
2. Two major cost constraints: Coinbase's 50% revenue split + bloated operating expenses. Unless the Coinbase agreement is renegotiated post-2026 and costs are cut, Circle's margin is thin.
3. Interest rate cut risk is real and imminent: If the Fed cuts rates by 150bps through 2026, Circle likely turns unprofitable. Conversely, higher rates = higher profits.
4. GENIUS Act is a net short-term positive: Should drive issuance growth and valuation premium, though the magnitude is uncertain.
5. The symbolic value of listing is huge: As the first major stablecoin to list on NYSE, generating retail excitement globally (even seeing discussions on non-crypto platforms like RED), as people lack direct stablecoin exposure
