$BTC The news situation is not too good, guys. You are following the ADP employment data of the U.S., and the image shows:

Last month: 6.2

Expectation: 11

Actual: 3.7— much lower than expected

This is indeed an extremely alarming number, indicating that the private sector in the U.S. is significantly slowing down hiring. If the Fed does not lower interest rates this June 2025, there could be the following scenarios:

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📉 1. The financial market reacts negatively

U.S. stocks: Could drop sharply, as investors expect monetary policy easing to save growth.

Gold: Could rise sharply due to recession fears and risk-averse capital flows.

USD: Likely to decrease, especially if other data is also weak.

U.S. bond yields: Could continue to drop due to expectations of weaker growth.

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📊 2. The Fed loses credibility or is seen as too "hawkish"

Weak data yet no action → the market will assume the Fed does not care enough about recession risks.

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📉 3. Recession risks become more evident

Low ADP data signals weak labor demand.

If the Fed maintains high interest rates → Q2 and Q3 growth could be very poor.

Here's this image for you to analyze.