$ETH dropped -45.41% in Q1 2025, and then bounced +42.51% in Q2. Most people assume that means it’s almost back — but mathematically, it’s still deep in the red.

Let’s take a real-world example:

Assume #ETH was $1000 at the start of Q1. A -45.41% crash brings it to:

$545.90 × (1 - 0.4541) = $545.90

Now apply the +42.51% bounce in Q2:

$545.90 × (1 + 0.4251) = $777.96

So even after a +42.51% rally, the price is still down 22.2% from the original $1000.

You’re not in profit — you’re still underwater.

And here's the hard truth: To recover from a -45.41% drop, ETH needs a:

(1000 - 545.90 / 545.90) × 100 = ~83%

Not 42%. You’re halfway there mathematically, not emotionally.

Now people scream “overbought!” after a 42% run — but that’s short-term thinking. Institutions don’t look at candles like retail does. They look at macro structure, capital dominance, and whether ETH is regaining real market share from $BTC .

But Ethereum dominance hasn’t improved. BTC dominance is still at 62%, and ETH is not leading any new narrative. There’s no real altcoin season — just isolated sector pumps. ETH isn’t breaking out structurally; it’s reacting technically.

So yes, +42% feels good. But in reality, ETH is still trading below major levels, dominance is weak, and alt momentum is fragmented. That’s not bullish — that’s a recovery bounce in a damaged structure.

Zoom out. The math doesn’t lie. Percentages alone don’t tell the story — structure, dominance, and capital rotation do.