#TrumpTariff

Trump’s tariff hike on steel and aluminum (from 25% to 50%)—announced in early June 2025—can have indirect but important effects on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market.

1. Inflation & Market Volatility (Positive for BTC)

• Tariffs = Higher Import Costs → Leads to higher prices for goods.

• If inflation rises due to tariffs, investors may turn to BTC as a hedge, similar to gold.

• Historically, when fiat currencies lose purchasing power, Bitcoin often gains as a non-sovereign asset.

Risk-Off Sentiment (Short-term Bearish)

• Tariffs raise fears of trade wars and economic slowdown.

• In high uncertainty, institutions may pull money out of risk assets, including crypto.

• BTC can be sold off in the short term to move into cash or U.S. Treasuries.

❌ Impact on BTC: Short-term bearish due to flight to safety

Stronger/Weaker USD (Mixed Effect)

• If tariffs hurt U.S. exports or raise inflation, the U.S. dollar may weaken.

• A weaker dollar generally supports BTC price (inverse correlation).

• However, any Fed response (like tightening policy) could strengthen the dollar, limiting BTC upside.

↔️ Impact on BTC: Depends on DXY movement and Fed reaction

Global Adoption Narrative (Bullish Long-Term)

• Protectionist policies fuel the narrative of decentralized, borderless money.

• Bitcoin benefits from distrust in centralized economic policies or currency controls.

✅ Impact on BTC: Long-term bullish due to stronger decentralization thesis