Let's talk about something real—Is Ethereum really a piece of junk or a godsend? Data doesn't lie, but the tears and saliva of speculators can drown you. In the square, people are either shouting 'to the moon' or cursing 'worse than a dog'; when emotions run high, wallets suffer the most. Below are a few hardcore perspectives to teach you how to look for insights with institutional thinking:
1. Don't be scared off by 'bad news'; the storm has a source
1. Is the Federal Reserve hawkish? That means the whole market is in trouble!
Recently, the Americans can't suppress inflation, and interest rate cut expectations have cooled significantly, leading institutional funds to collectively withdraw from risk assets (tech stocks, BTC, ETH) to save themselves—**but this shouldn't be blamed on Ethereum's technology; it's purely because the cost of the dollar has risen and global liquidity is tightening.
2. Has the chain really collapsed? The data says otherwise!
Transaction fee income is stable: there hasn't been a crash, and it's still fluctuating within a reasonable range;
The main reason for the drop in TVL is the price of coins falling; users haven't run away, and DeFi protocols haven't seen large-scale withdrawals;
L2 and NFT trading volumes: it is a bit cold, but much stronger than the bear market of 2023.
2. What are professional players focusing on? On-chain signals are the gold mine
Speculators look at prices, while big players look at on-chain fundamentals:
The number of holding addresses has broken 110 million, and long-term holders are still quietly accumulating;
Whales are buying crazily: the top 10 addresses have purchased 1.2 million ETH in two weeks at a cost of $2400, clearly accumulating at low prices;
Staking yields are discounted by 30%: with an annualized return of 4.5% + 20x PE, ETH's fair value should have already reached $3500, and now it's at $2600? Institutions are waking up to buy the dip.
Technological upgrades are the real game-changer:
Pectra's upgrade has just landed: TPS soared from 30 to 90, and gas fees dropped to $0.001;
EIP-7002 has been approved: nodes can programmatically trigger withdrawals, RWA (real-world asset tokenization)
Compliance infrastructure is in place—95% of BlackRock's BUIDL fund has already been invested in this sector.
3. Risks? Yes, but the key is that they are controllable
Don't just listen to the good news; beware of black swans:
On June 3, Grayscale ETF review deadline; if staking yields are deemed 'securities interest,' it could drop to $2300;
Leverage liquidation minefield: $12 billion in long positions were accumulated between $2500-$2600; a sudden drop could trigger a chain reaction;
RSI daily line surged to 75: short-term overbought, significant pullback pressure.
In my personal opinion, everyone should base their judgments on the latest real-time news and think through the situation themselves.