#Circle扩大IPO规模
Circle, as the issuer of the world's second-largest stablecoin USDC, its expanded IPO (planned financing of $6-8.96 billion, valuation of $6.2-7.2 billion) will have a multi-dimensional impact on the market:
1. Accelerate the mainstream adoption of stablecoins
Circle's listing marks the first time stablecoins have entered traditional financial markets. As a benchmark for compliance, USDC will promote wider adoption of stablecoins by institutional users as a medium for cross-border payments, DeFi margins, and RWA (real-world assets) transactions. Guosheng Securities pointed out that this move may reshape the integration process of traditional finance and the crypto economy, especially in the field of cross-border payments, where stablecoin costs can be reduced by 97% and settlement time shortened to seconds.
2. Intensify market competition and regulatory games
Circle's compliance advantages (such as the EU MiCA license) may squeeze USDT's market share, but it needs to cope with the competitive pressure of potential entrants such as technology giants like Amazon and Google and traditional banks. At the same time, the implementation of the US GENIUS Act and the Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance will accelerate the unification of the global stablecoin regulatory framework, which will benefit compliant issuers but may compress the profit margin of interest rate spreads (Circle relies on reserve interest for approximately 99% of its revenue).
3. Reconstructing capital market valuations
The entry of institutional investors (such as BlackRock and ARK) may drive up the prices of stablecoin concept stocks, but Circle itself faces interest rate sensitivity risks (interest spread income is under pressure in the rate cut cycle) and high distribution costs (distribution costs reached $1 billion in 2024, accounting for 60% of revenue). If its transformation into payment infrastructure (such as the cross-border remittance network CPN) is successful, it may open up a trillion-dollar market space.
4. Catalysis of RWA tokenization
Circle's IPO will strengthen the position of stablecoins as a medium for RWA transactions, promoting the on-chaining of physical assets such as new energy and carbon assets. RWA projects in Hong Kong and mainland China (such as GCL Photovoltaic and Dalian Digital Island) may accelerate their implementation with the help of policy support, forming a new financial infrastructure ecosystem of "stablecoin + RWA".
Risk warning: Large-scale cashing out by Circle's internal shareholders (old shares account for 60%) may transmit short-term pressure signals, and the volatility of the crypto market may still impact its reserve stability.
