The current offering at $31 per share gives Circle a fully diluted valuation of $8.1 billion. With the initial public offering subscribed 25 times, Chamath stated in his recent post on X: "If anyone can buy it even for $12 billion or $13 billion, it's a bargain, in my opinion, considering the value this company could have in 20 years."
The venture capitalist also praised Circle for building a solid infrastructure and positioning itself at the forefront of the upcoming U.S. stablecoin legislation, also known as the GENIUS Act. Chamath believes that over time, there will be fierce competition in the U.S. dollar stablecoin market, with major players like Stripe, Square, Ripple, and Coinbase vying to dominate the market.
While this could be beneficial for companies and end consumers, it will be challenging for issuers as profit margins would decrease. Chamath wrote:
"The company that builds the most efficient infrastructure and sells it at the lowest price (with a small additional margin) will likely capture this market."
However, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated that Ripple never made an offer to acquire the USDC issuer, putting an end to previous speculation.
Chamath's post on X generated reactions in the community. Scott Melker, host of the popular podcast Wolf of All Streets, claimed that Circle's success largely depends on the "restructuring of Tether" in the United States.
"If they get regulatory approval, it will be hard to surpass them," he added. As we know, Tether is already out of Europe for failing to comply with MiCA regulations. It will be interesting to see if it manages to overcome U.S. regulatory advances.