I have always felt that the issue with altcoin seasons is related to overall liquidity, not that the market doesn't need altcoin seasons, but that the current liquidity does not support the explosion of altcoin seasons, especially during times of monetary tightening. However, I believe that altcoin seasons will still occur when monetary easing takes place.

The U.S. stock market is a good example. Compared to the U.S. stock market, the history of cryptocurrencies is too short, so short that this is the first time in history that the $BTC halving cycle coincides with the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, leading to insufficient liquidity and making many of the previous experiences of many friends no longer applicable.

From the perspective of the U.S. stock market, don't be fooled by the Nasdaq and S&P frequently breaking new highs; small-cap stocks are still in a dire state. Take Nike, which I have always followed; even McDonald's stock price trend is not doing well, and don't even get me started on manufacturing and retail.

However, the effects of the cycle are certainly still there. This cycle is monetary policy. During easing, liquidity is better, risk appetite for investments increases, and investors are more willing to invest in high-growth, high-risk targets. During tightening, more investments go into defensive assets.

So I believe that altcoin seasons will definitely happen, although it may be in the 2028 cycle.