A new day has begun, and we need to analyze a super variable that will impact the next 10 years. Yesterday, Trump made a stunning proposal: completely cancel the debt ceiling [bomb]! Additionally, the American tax reduction bill has been submitted to the Senate. Both of these will significantly increase the fiscal deficit and debt scale of the United States. Even Trump's good friend Musk has not hesitated to break with Trump, strongly opposing these measures on X. These measures will accelerate the U.S. towards the abyss of debt slavery, drowning in debt.
So what impact does this have on our crypto space? Let's analyze it from both the short-term and long-term perspectives [downward]:
(1) From a short-term perspective, it is favorable ✅
Because canceling the debt ceiling can avoid a U.S. government shutdown and debt default, stabilizing global market sentiment in the short term and relieving the pressure of U.S. Treasury sell-offs. The yield on U.S. Treasuries will not rise significantly, preventing capital outflow from the crypto space.
(2) From a long-term perspective, it is even more favorable ✅ because the whole world can see that the U.S. fiscal deficit may spiral out of control, with the debt scale accelerating to expand (currently over $36 trillion), weakening the dollar's credibility.
Countries may accelerate the reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings, promoting the de-dollarization process (China and Japan have already reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings), shaking the dollar's status as the global reserve currency. The dollar will fall, U.S. assets will drop, and most of the outflowing funds will seek destinations: some will flow into gold, some into Asian and European stocks, and some into BTC.
Overall, this is beneficial for BTC's position as a substitute for the dollar. Why is Trump willing to do this [puzzling]? Let's analyze it from a deeper motivation.
(1) Anyway, since I only work for 4 years, canceling the debt ceiling allows for borrowing more money to meet short-term needs, and long-term issues can be left to the next president.
(2) The family and nearby powerful figures have bought a large amount of BTC. Doing this will benefit BTC's surge, allowing them to profit, so why not?
In March, we analyzed Trump's motivations for the brothers, advising everyone to hold onto their chips and not to easily cut losses at the bottom. Trump first created a wave of panic through tariffs, then let his family take advantage of the opportunity, and later restored the BTC market through tariff negotiations.
Through today’s analysis, we have seen the major trends for the future, and everyone has an idea of how to operate going forward. We will send more core analyses to the group.
