Macau’s gaming industry has achieved its strongest monthly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP21.19 billion ($2.62 billion) in May 2025. This remarkable figure represents a 5% year-on-year increase and surpasses the previous post-pandemic peak of MOP20.79 billion set in October 2024, driven primarily by a massive surge in visitors during China’s Labour Day Golden Week holiday period.
The milestone achievement signals a robust recovery for the world’s largest gambling hub, demonstrating the resilience of Macau’s gaming sector amid ongoing economic uncertainties and regulatory challenges. The strong performance has prompted analysts to revise their forecasts upward and has renewed optimism about the territory’s ability to sustain its recovery momentum throughout 2025.
Key Takeaways
Record Performance: Macau’s May 2025 GGR of MOP21.19 billion ($2.62 billion) marks the highest monthly total since the pandemic began, representing a 12.4% month-on-month increase.
Golden Week Impact: The May 1-5 Labour Day holiday period saw 850,000 visitors flood Macau, a 40% year-on-year increase, with daily GGR exceeding MOP1 billion.
Mass Market Dominance: Non-VIP gaming contributed 75% of total revenue (MOP15.89 billion), continuing the post-pandemic trend favoring mass market players.
Pre-Pandemic Progress: May’s revenue reached 81.7% of May 2019 levels, the closest Macau has come to full recovery.
VIP Revival Signs: High-roller activity showed encouraging growth with turnover increasing 25-30% and win rates improving to 3.5-3.7%.
Analyst Optimism: Major investment banks raised their forecasts, with some calling it “the biggest beat in years.”
Year-to-Date Growth: January-May 2025 GGR totaled MOP97.71 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year despite remaining 23% below 2019 levels.
Labour Day Golden Week: The Catalyst for Record Performance
The exceptional performance in May was primarily driven by China’s Labour Day Golden Week holiday period from May 1-5, which proved to be a watershed moment for Macau’s tourism and gaming recovery.
Visitor Surge and Demographics
The holiday period attracted 850,000 visitors to Macau, representing a remarkable 40% year-on-year increase and demonstrating the pent-up demand for travel and entertainment among Chinese tourists. Key demographic trends included:
Mainland Chinese Dominance: Mainland Chinese travelers accounted for approximately 80% of all arrivals, reflecting the continued importance of this core market for Macau’s recovery.
Improved Access: Eased visa policies and expanded airlift capacity between major Chinese cities and Macau facilitated the visitor surge.
Extended Stays: Average length of stay increased compared to previous holiday periods, contributing to higher per-visitor spending.
Diverse Visitor Profile: The influx included both traditional gamblers and leisure tourists attracted by Macau’s expanding non-gaming offerings.
Daily Gaming Revenue Surge
During the Golden Week period, daily gaming revenue consistently exceeded MOP1 billion ($124 million), levels not seen since before the pandemic. This performance was particularly impressive given that it was achieved despite:
Capacity restrictions at some properties due to ongoing health protocols
Limited international visitor arrivals outside of mainland China
A still-recovering VIP segment that traditionally drives higher revenue peaks
Industry analysts noted that the sustained daily revenue levels throughout the five-day period, rather than just isolated peak days, suggested underlying strength in the recovery rather than temporary volatility.
Premium Mass Segment Leadership
The premium mass segment emerged as the clear driver of the Golden Week success, with high-stakes non-VIP play surging 18% compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was facilitated by:
Luxury Promotions: Integrated resorts including Galaxy Macau and Wynn Palace offered targeted promotions for affluent mainland Chinese visitors.
Enhanced Amenities: Upgraded gaming floors and premium services attracted players who might have previously required VIP-level treatment.
Diversified Entertainment: The combination of gaming with shopping, dining, and entertainment created comprehensive destination experiences.
Mass Market Resilience and VIP Recovery Signs
Macau’s May performance highlighted the continuing dominance of mass market gaming while also showing encouraging signs of VIP segment recovery.
Mass Market Strength
The mass market contributed MOP15.89 billion, or 75% of total gaming revenue, reinforcing this segment’s role as the foundation of Macau’s post-pandemic recovery:
Broad-Based Appeal: Mass market gaming attracts a wider demographic range, providing more stable revenue streams than VIP-dependent models.
Lower Volatility: Mass market revenue tends to be less susceptible to economic fluctuations and regulatory changes affecting high-net-worth individuals.
Regulatory Alignment: The focus on mass market gaming aligns with government preferences for a more sustainable and socially responsible gaming industry.
VIP Segment Recovery
While still significantly below pre-pandemic levels, the VIP segment showed meaningful improvement in May:
Turnover Growth: VIP turnover increased 25-30% compared to April, driven partly by the soft launch of Capella at Galaxy Macau.
Improved Win Rates: Win rates rose to 3.5-3.7% from April’s 2.85%, closer to historical norms and indicating healthier gameplay patterns.
New Property Impact: The opening of premium facilities like Capella demonstrated that luxury amenities continue to attract high-roller players.
However, VIP revenue remains approximately 61% below 2019 levels, reflecting ongoing challenges including:
Reduced travel from traditional VIP source markets outside mainland China
Continued regulatory scrutiny of junket operations
Economic pressures affecting high-net-worth individuals in China
Analyst Reactions and Market Confidence
The May performance prompted widespread analyst upgrades and positive revisions to full-year forecasts from major investment banks.
Citigroup Analysis
Citigroup raised its May GGR estimate to MOP21.25 billion, citing “the biggest beat in years” during Golden Week. The bank’s analysts noted:
Daily revenue patterns during Golden Week exceeded their most optimistic scenarios
Sustained performance throughout the month, not just during holiday periods
Evidence of improving operational efficiency across major operators
J.P. Morgan Assessment
J.P. Morgan highlighted that daily GGR reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels despite minimal VIP recovery, calling it “among the strongest positive surprises since 2020.” Their analysis emphasized:
The resilience of mass market demand despite broader economic headwinds
Improved revenue per visitor metrics indicating enhanced operational effectiveness
Signs that Macau’s recovery could accelerate if broader economic conditions improve
Seaport Research Partners Perspective
Seaport Research Partners attributed the rebound to China’s economic stimulus measures, which bolstered consumer confidence among the upper-middle class demographic that drives much of Macau’s mass market gaming. They noted:
Correlation between Chinese government stimulus measures and Macau gaming performance
Evidence that domestic Chinese consumption patterns were supporting discretionary spending
Potential for sustained growth if economic support measures continue
Regulatory Environment and Compliance Challenges
Despite the strong performance, Macau’s gaming operators continue to navigate an evolving regulatory environment that presents both challenges and opportunities.
Non-Gaming Investment Mandates
Under current regulations, operators must allocate 2% of GGR to cultural and entertainment investments by Q3 2025. Based on May’s revenue levels, this requirement would divert approximately MOP424 million ($53 million) from traditional gaming operations into:
Cultural and entertainment facilities development
Community programs and local economic development initiatives
Tourism infrastructure improvements
Educational and cultural programming
While these mandates reduce short-term gaming revenue, they support the government’s broader strategy of positioning Macau as a diversified tourism destination rather than solely a gaming hub.
Ongoing Compliance Requirements
Operators continue to adapt to enhanced regulatory oversight including:
Enhanced Due Diligence: Stricter customer verification and anti-money laundering protocols
Responsible Gaming Measures: Expanded player protection programs and spending monitoring systems
Operational Transparency: Increased reporting requirements for both financial and operational metrics
Local Employment Targets: Requirements to employ local residents in key positions
Economic Headwinds and Risk Factors
While May’s performance was exceptional, several economic and operational factors could impact future performance.
Macro-Economic Challenges
U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Escalating trade disputes could affect Chinese consumer confidence and discretionary spending
Property Market Concerns: A sluggish Chinese property market may impact the wealth of potential gaming customers
Currency Fluctuations: Exchange rate volatility between the Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar could affect visitor spending patterns
Seasonal and Weather Risks
Analysts have warned that June revenue could face challenges including:
Typhoon Season: Potential weather disruptions could significantly impact visitor arrivals and gaming revenue
Post-Holiday Normalization: Natural decline in activity following the exceptional Golden Week performance
Competition from Other Destinations: Increased competition from other Asian gaming and tourism destinations
Industry forecasts suggest June revenue could dip 13.7% month-on-month due to these seasonal factors, though this would still represent healthy year-on-year growth.
2025 Outlook and Government Targets
The strong May performance has improved prospects for achieving full-year targets, though challenges remain.
Government Revenue Targets
The Macau government has set a 2025 GGR target of MOP240 billion ($29.9 billion), which requires an average monthly revenue of MOP20 billion. Key metrics include:
Current Average: January-May average of MOP19.54 billion per month
Required Acceleration: Need for continued strong performance in remaining months
Holiday Dependence: Significant reliance on Golden Week periods and other major holidays
S&P Global Ratings Forecast
S&P Global Ratings forecasts 5-6% annual GGR growth for 2025, driven by:
Mass Market Resilience: Continued strength in the non-VIP segment
Gradual VIP Recovery: Slow but steady improvement in high-roller activity
Infrastructure Improvements: Enhanced connectivity and facility upgrades
Diversification Benefits: Growing contribution from non-gaming revenue streams
However, the ratings agency notes that VIP revenue remains 61% below 2019 levels, indicating substantial room for further recovery if conditions permit.
Competitive Landscape and Property Performance
May’s strong performance benefited all major operators, though some properties showed particular strength.
Galaxy Entertainment Group
Galaxy Macau’s performance was bolstered by:
The soft launch of Capella at Galaxy Macau, which attracted premium customers
Successful Golden Week promotions targeting mainland Chinese visitors
Strong performance in both mass market and VIP segments
Wynn Resorts
Wynn Palace and Wynn Macau demonstrated:
Effective premium mass market positioning
Strong conversion rates from visitors to gaming customers
Successful integration of gaming with luxury amenities
Sands China
The company’s multiple properties showed:
Broad-based strength across different customer segments
Effective use of integrated resort amenities to drive gaming revenue
Strong performance in both Cotai and peninsula locations
Future Catalysts and Growth Drivers
Looking ahead, several factors could support continued recovery and growth:
Infrastructure Development
Bridge Connectivity: Continued benefits from the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge improving access
Transportation Upgrades: Airport expansion and improved ferry services
Technology Integration: Enhanced digital services and cashless payment systems, with crypto gambling on the horizon.
Product Innovation
New Gaming Products: Introduction of innovative gaming formats subject to regulatory approval
Entertainment Expansion: Growth in non-gaming entertainment options
Luxury Positioning: Continued development of premium amenities and services
Regional Recovery
Tourism Normalization: Gradual return of international visitors from markets beyond mainland China
Business Travel: Recovery in MICE (meetings, incentives, conferences, exhibitions) business
Regional Competition: Positioning relative to other Asian gaming destinations
Conclusion: Momentum with Measured Optimism
Macau’s record-breaking May 2025 performance represents a significant milestone in the territory’s post-pandemic recovery, demonstrating both the resilience of its core mass market and the potential for broader gaming sector growth. The exceptional results during Golden Week, combined with sustained performance throughout the month, suggest that underlying demand remains strong despite broader economic uncertainties.
However, the industry’s future success will depend on maintaining this momentum while navigating ongoing regulatory requirements, seasonal variations, and macro-economic headwinds. The heavy reliance on holiday-driven tourism and the mass market’s dominant role, while providing stability, also highlights the need for continued diversification and sustainable growth strategies.
As Macau prepares for October’s National Day Golden Week (traditionally the year’s strongest gaming period) operators and regulators alike remain cautiously optimistic about sustaining the recovery trajectory established in May. The achievement of 81.7% of pre-pandemic revenue levels suggests that full recovery, while not yet complete, is increasingly within reach.
The key challenge will be building on this success while balancing growth with the government’s diversification mandates and the industry’s responsibility to maintain sustainable gaming practices. May’s performance has demonstrated that when conditions align (holiday periods, improved access, and strong consumer confidence) Macau’s gaming industry can still deliver exceptional results. The question now is whether this exceptional performance can evolve into sustained, long-term growth.
References
Gambling Insider. (2025, June 2). “Macau gaming revenue hits highest post-pandemic level at MOP 21.19bn in May.”
iGaming Business. (2025, June). “Macau sees best gaming revenue month since pandemic.”
CDC Gaming. (2025, June). “Macau GGR sets new post-COVID high of US$2.62 billion in May.”
iGaming Today. (2025, June). “Macau GGR Climbs 5% in May, Signals Momentum for Casino Recovery.”
ASGAM. (2025, May 6). “JP Morgan: Macau’s Golden Week GGR provides ‘biggest beat’ in years at more than MOP1 billion per day.”
