I firmly believe that the $100,000 Bitcoin is not the end of this bull market. Even if it later drops to $69,000, it would just be a normal pullback in the bull market.

Here is my analysis of the major upward trend coming in the second half of the year:

The impact of U.S. monetary policy on the cryptocurrency market is profound. Bitcoin, as an interest rate-sensitive asset, is heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's decisions. Inflation is a key factor in determining quantitative easing. Currently, U.S. inflation has been controlled, and the Federal Reserve may initiate quantitative easing around June, which will provide upward momentum for Bitcoin.

When Bitcoin approaches $100,000, it attracts a large number of short-term investors chasing the price. $100,000 is a historic round number for Bitcoin, and at that time, market expectations were too high, leading to a significant pullback. Most of these short-term investors are currently “on guard,” and if the price approaches $100,000 again, there will be significant selling pressure. Only after a long period of adjustment, which erodes these investors' confidence, can Bitcoin truly have the potential to rise.

From historical data, Bitcoin has usually peaked between November and December in each cycle, with each cycle occurring approximately every four years. Whether this pattern will continue remains to be seen with time.

Based on the above analysis, my strategy is to hold firmly and remain close to fully invested. However, several unstable factors still need attention: The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to end this year, and the market has not fully priced in this positive development; after the war ends, inflation is expected to decrease, which will create more room for interest rate cuts; there is uncertainty in Trump's tariff policy, which could be a bargaining chip for negotiations, potentially leading to significant changes in the future; the market may price in interest rate cuts in advance, and Bitcoin may start its major upward trend earlier, which requires caution.

In investing in the cryptocurrency market, do not act impulsively and do not attempt to predict the market. If Bitcoin's price drops, I will dollar-cost average around $76,000 and $70,000, and if it does not drop to these levels, I will not buy. This year presents significant operational challenges, and it is likely to be a year of transition from bull to bear market, with many retail investors standing guard at high levels toward the end of the main upward trend, which is a high-probability event, and perhaps we can only wait for four years to see the brilliance again.

In the cryptocurrency market, there is a potential new star worth paying attention to, which is the C o n a n coin on the Solana chain. The C o n a n coin is named after the famous active-duty military dog, C o n a n.