Today everyone is discussing the issuance of tokens by Pumpfun, expecting to raise $1B at a valuation of $4B.

Let's see if Pump is worth $4B.

According to the benchmarking valuation method favored by financial veterans, we first list all cash flow projects (Cash Cow) and rank them according to annualized revenue. The uniform calculation method for annualized revenue here is: past 30 days' revenue * 12. This estimation method is very affected by market conditions, but mainly discusses relative valuation rather than profitability, so as long as everyone adheres to this algorithm, it is fine.

As shown in the following data:

Pump Fun's annualized revenue for the past 30 days is $77.98 million, which corresponds to an FDV of $5B, giving it an FDV/annualized revenue ratio of 64; which is relatively high.

However, there are similar projects like ENA and Pendle with even higher ratios.

So I believe that in the long run, Pump is definitely not worth this valuation; the revenue certainty is not as strong as leading DeFi projects like Ray/Cake; but if the market is good, the team may create FOMO and it could possibly double.

Regarding this valuation, combined with the sentiment on X, I think there is no need to be overly bearish or even short it at the opening.

Holding cash and watching the changes is enough.