The price trend of BTC is influenced by various factors. $105,000 is an important price point, but merely maintaining this price level does not guarantee that it will reach new highs. The following is a specific analysis:
Technical Analysis Level
- Support and Resistance: The area around $105,000 has previously been a strong resistance level for Bitcoin. If it can effectively hold and break through, it will turn into a strong support level, providing a solid foundation for price increases. From the perspective of Fibonacci extension levels, $105,000 is a key extension level in Bitcoin's previous rising trend, and a breakout is expected to open up further upside potential.
- Indicator Signals: When the price is near $105,000, if the RSI indicator remains below 70 and a golden cross occurs (the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term moving average), it is bullish. If the MACD indicator shows bullish signals, such as the histogram turning positive from negative and the negative gap between the main line and the signal line converging, it will also enhance upward momentum.
Market Sentiment and Liquidity
- Market Sentiment: After Bitcoin prices break above $105,000, market sentiment will be greatly encouraged, boosting bullish confidence and attracting more investors to buy, further driving prices up.
- Capital Inflow: Continuous inflow of institutional funds is an important support for the rise in Bitcoin prices. The ongoing accumulation by institutions such as MicroStrategy, as well as the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, provide strong financial support for the market. If more institutional funds can be attracted at the $105,000 price level, it will strongly drive new highs.
Macroeconomic Factors
- Monetary Policy: The increase in global money supply provides liquidity support for the rise in Bitcoin prices. In the first quarter of 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of global M2 money supply reached 8.3%, setting a new high since the quantitative easing period in 2021. If the trend of monetary expansion continues, Bitcoin is expected to gain further liquidity premium.
- Geopolitical and Trade Frictions: Geopolitical tensions and trade frictions increase market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. Bitcoin's safe-haven properties as 'digital gold' will be highlighted.
Market Risk and Uncertainty
- Regulatory Risk: The cryptocurrency market still faces significant regulatory uncertainty. If regulatory policies tighten, such as the SEC halting ETF applications, it will have a major impact on the market, leading to a sharp decline in Bitcoin prices.
- Market Volatility and Correction Risks: Even if Bitcoin prices hold at $105,000, there may be corrections due to factors such as short-term profit-taking and changes in market sentiment. If there is a volume surge and stagnation in the $93,000-$96,000 range, it may test the $88,000 support level.
In summary, BTC holding above $105,000 has certain positive significance for its price increase, but reaching new highs still requires the joint effect of multiple factors. Investors should consider technical analysis, market sentiment, liquidity, macroeconomic environment, and regulatory risks comprehensively when making investment decisions, and operate cautiously.
