As of now, Bitcoin is overall in a range-bound oscillation pattern. From the intraday price fluctuations, the price made a tentative advance this morning but failed to effectively break through the key resistance level, followed by a certain degree of pullback. In the past 24 hours, the price has fluctuated between $103,055 and $107,100, and the current price is oscillating close to $105,000, with the overall trend being relatively stagnant.

2. Global market analysis and influencing factors

  1. Macroeconomic level: The uncertainty of the global economy remains an important factor affecting Bitcoin prices. Recent data released by the United States shows inflation exceeding expectations, and with non-farm payroll data about to be released, if non-farm job additions exceed 250,000 (expected value 190,000) or monthly wage growth exceeds 0.4% (previous value 0.2%), it will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, instantly withdrawing market liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin. On the other hand, economic stimulus policies in some countries and geopolitical tensions have led some investors to seek Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset or alternative investment channel, which has provided some support for Bitcoin prices.

  2. Cryptocurrency industry level: The SEC of the United States has urgently suspended the ETH spot ETF (current market implied approval rate is only 25%). Originally, approval for the Ethereum spot ETF was expected by the end of May, but the SEC suddenly announced an extension of the approval process until September (or later), causing 'buy the expectation' funds to retreat, which has had a certain impact on the sentiment of the entire cryptocurrency market, affecting Bitcoin as well. However, in the long run, institutional investors remain highly interested in Bitcoin, as the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), led by global financial giant BlackRock, has attracted a large inflow of funds in the past year, showing institutional investors' optimism about the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, providing long-term support for the market.

  3. Technical analysis level: From the daily chart, the BOLL middle band at $105,000 constitutes important support, but the price has closed near the middle band for three consecutive days. Combined with the MACD death cross and shrinking trading volume, it indicates that bulls are struggling to push higher from the current position. However, the KDJ is close to the oversold zone, which usually means limited downside potential, indicating a technical divergence. The 4-hour cycle shows that the BOLL band has continuously narrowed to 1.3%, the narrowest volatility range since 2025, accompanied by eight consecutive bars of shrinking volume, which is a typical precursor to a trend change. On the 1-hour chart, although the MA30 golden cross MA7 seems bullish, the MACD histogram continues to shorten, and the price is suppressed below the $106,000 mark. After the long upper shadow at 3 AM failed to test $106,000, the trading volume suddenly increased but did not break through, which is obviously a probing action by the main force.

3. Operational direction and point suggestions

  1. Long strategy: If the price falls to around $104,600 - $105,000, consider taking a light long position.

    • Entry timing: Closely monitor for stabilization signals in the above range. If a long lower shadow candlestick or a clear reversal pattern appears, entry can be made within 15 - 30 minutes after confirmation of the pattern.

    • Stop loss point: Set below $104,000 to prevent unexpected large price declines and control the extent of losses.

    • Target point: Aim for around $107,000. When the price approaches this target, gradually reduce positions to lock in profits. If the price strongly breaks through $107,000, the target for the remaining position can be moved up to $108,000.


It should be noted that the Bitcoin market has high uncertainty and volatility. The above operational suggestions are based only on the current market situation analysis, and actual operations should flexibly adjust strategies according to real-time market changes and ensure proper risk management.