#秋叶蓝布城 Starting from May 17th, I will predict the direction of the big coin's level to recent level direction, with accompanying images (those who understand, understand). Hello everyone~ I am Autumn Leaf Blue Cloth City, a trader navigating the waves of cryptocurrency. My name sounds like a character from a Japanese anime, but it’s actually just a nickname I randomly typed when registering on a crypto forum. Autumn Leaf symbolizes the seasonal cycle of trading, while Blue Cloth City implies my pursuit of calm and rational trading. Ten years ago, when I was staring at the S&P 500 curve in a daze, I first heard about Bitcoin. At that time, I felt like a sailor discovering a new continent, and immediately plunged into this 24-hour sleepless digital casino. Looking back now, that may have been the craziest and wisest decision of my life.
Chapter One #点位 The Hunting Ground of Numbers. In the world of cryptocurrency, levels are the Bible of traders. I still remember that night of March 12, 2020, when the big coin plummeted from nearly $10,000 to $3,800. At that time, I was on the balcony smoking the last pack of Marlboro, watching the K-line fall like a waterfall, while friends were panicking and selling off. Yet, I doubled down against the trend because my algorithm model indicated that the VIX panic index's correlation with BTC volatility had broken the historical threshold. Trading is not about predicting the future but recognizing probabilistic advantages, and level selection is the scalpel that turns probability into reality.
On-chain Data Anatomy: By monitoring whale addresses through Glassnode, when a giant whale places a large limit order below a support level, it often signifies a reversal signal. Multi-cycle resonance: Overlaying the Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1-hour chart with psychological levels from the daily chart is like finding constellations in the night sky. Liquidity trap identification: Deep in the order book of CEX, those deliberately exposed false depths often indicate institutional manipulation. However, level selection has never been science but art; the market is always smarter than the models.
Chapter Two # Direction, Finding Order in Chaos. The direction of cryptocurrency is more elusive than traditional markets. There are no Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, no GDP data releases; the only dominator is the chemical reaction of human nature and code. My directional judgment is based on three dimensions, narrative is faith: the NFT craze of 2021, the Layer2 narrative of 2022, the RWA (Real World Assets) wave of 2023... Behind every explosive track is a transfer of narrative power. On-chain fund flow: When one day I notice a sudden surge in USDT issuance while large on-chain BTC transfers decrease, I will be alert that this may be a signal that institutions are preparing to dump.
Macro Mapping: The essence of the crypto market is a barometer of global risk assets. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in 2022, the correlation between BTC and NASDAQ reached as high as 0.8. I would divide the BTC price by the S&P 500 index, observing whether the ratio deviates from historical averages, but the most dangerous enemy in directional judgment is confirmation bias. In 2022, during the LUNA collapse, its algorithmic stablecoin model seemed unbreakable, until that day when I watched $80 billion in market cap vanish within 72 hours. The market will never tell you when it will turn; it will only teach you to respect the trend through profits or bankruptcy.
Chapter Three # Trading Intuition and Body Memory, in the hellish arena of crypto trading, the most mysterious and deadly ability is trading intuition. It cannot be quantified or taught; it can only be forged in the baptism of blood and fire. When BTC probes key resistance levels back and forth but fails to break through, I instinctively hold my breath—because the next K-line may be the gate to hell.
My intuition training occurs when the ETH and BTC exchange rate suddenly decouples, and altcoins collectively revolt. My fingers reflexively type 'long SOL' on the trading terminal. When one day I discover that the details of Tether's reserves have been delayed by 48 hours... I will immediately clear all leveraged positions because a storm is on the way. The core of trading intuition is the precise calibration of dopamine and adrenaline. In the summer of 2023, when the Solana ecosystem exploded, my body would inexplicably feel exhilarated at 14:00 UTC+8 because that’s when U.S. institutional traders just finished their morning meeting, and funds were pouring in. This is not superstition, but rather a bodily reflex to the market rhythm. However, trading intuition also has a fatal flaw: like fine wine, it can dull judgment.
In March 2024, I once missed the best entry point before BTC's halving due to overconfidence in holding altcoins. Trading intuition is like wings, but reason is the parachute. In my 10-year trading career, I have experienced daily profits of tens of thousands of USTD and also the despair of liquidation. Now, I begin to write this sentence in my trading journal: Cryptocurrency trading is not about pursuing exorbitant profits, but an art of dancing with uncertainty. Levels, direction, intuition—these seemingly cold terms are backed by countless sleepless nights of self-struggle. And I am still searching for that ultimate answer: when all technical indicators fail, all narratives collapse, and all intuitions betray, what is the anchor point of trading? Perhaps the answer is hidden in that line of text in the genesis block of Bitcoin, because in this world, trust is the most scarce asset.
🎉 Welcome to join my team! Click the quick entry, click the trading alliance competition, click the contract team competition, search for my name, Autumn Leaf Blue Cloth City, join my team. Note ⚠️ If you joined someone else's team, you can now change to join my team within 24 hours. Only team members of my team can share levels, direction, and resources... You can check my strength homepage to verify all posts. Thank you for your support, and finally, I wish everyone prosperity...
