✅ Main scenario: Short according to the trend
• Entry: 162–165 USDT (strong resistance zone – Ichimoku cloud + EMA cluster blocking the top).
• Entry conditions: A bearish reversal signal (reversal candles like Shooting Star, Bearish Engulfing) or Stoch RSI crossing down from the overbought zone.
• Stop-loss: Above 166.5 (exceeding Kumo cloud and MA resistance).
• Take-profit:
• TP1: 155 (short-term support).
• TP2: 145 (the nearest technical bottom on the H4 timeframe).
🔄 Alternative scenario: Long if breakout is successful
• Only consider LONG when: the price closes the H4 candle above 165.5 and completely exits the Ichimoku cloud.
• Target TP for breakout: 174 USDT.
• Stop-loss: Below 160.
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🧠 Strategy Explanation – Why should we SHORT?
📌 Combined technical signals from the H4 chart:
1. Ichimoku Cloud:
• The price is testing the lower edge of the red cloud (strong resistance zone).
• Tenkan crosses Kijun upwards but is still below the cloud => weak signal.
• Chikou Span is below the price => trend increase not confirmed.
2. EMA & SMA:
• EMA 9/34 is below EMA 89 & SMA 9 => medium-term trend is still down.
• The price is touching the MA cluster => very high risk of being 'pushed down'.
3. Stochastic RSI:
• Both Stoch RSI sets (14.14.3.3 and 84.84.18.18) are in the overbought zone => warning of a correction.
• The %K line is about to cross down the %D line => a potential early reversal.
4. MACD:
• Slight positive divergence signal, but not strong enough.
• Histogram is still negative, MACD is below the zero line => the major trend has not confirmed an increase.
5. Bollinger Band %B:
• %B indicator = 0.86 => price is near the upper band => short-term overbought.
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🔎 Conclusion:
• The current structure is a technical pullback in a downtrend.
• If there is no successful breakout, the price may quickly be pushed down again.
• This is a good opportunity for SHORT with a clear R:R ratio, high profit potential, and low risk if entered at the right point.
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