Trend Trading: 17-year-old Liangxi’s precise predictions.
17-year-old trader Liangxi achieved stable profits through trend-following strategies when Bitcoin broke historical highs in 2024. His operating logic is as follows:
Entry Timing: When Bitcoin price stabilizes above the MA60 moving average and MACD forms a golden cross, judge that the bull market has started and open a long position with 10x leverage.
Risk Management: Each trade should not exceed 5% of total capital, set a trailing stop-loss (3% below opening price), and gradually reduce positions to lock in profits when prices break key resistance levels (e.g., 60,000 USD).
Performance: The average holding period for a single trade is 2-3 weeks, annualized returns exceed 200%, and maximum drawdown is controlled within 15%.
Core Logic: Go with the trend, use technical indicators to confirm trends, and avoid counter-trend bottom picking / topping.
Hedge Arbitrage: Futures-Spot Basis Reversion Strategy
In April 2024, an institutional investor profited 4 times through arbitrage between Bitcoin futures and spot.
Market Background: When the price of Bitcoin futures (e.g., CME contracts) is more than 5% higher than spot, there is arbitrage opportunity.
Operational Steps: Buy spot BTC (for example, through Binance).
Simultaneously short an equivalent Bitcoin futures contract (e.g., OKX perpetual contract).
When the basis converges (e.g., premium drops below 1%), close both spot and futures positions simultaneously.
Profit Calculation: Assuming a spot price of 50,000 USDT and a futures price of 52,500 USDT, with a basis of 5%. When the basis converges to 1%, the profit is about 4% (net profit about 3.5% after deducting funding rates and fees).
Risk Warning: Pay attention to funding rates (daily settlement for perpetual contracts) and the time cost of delivery contracts.
Institutional Operations: Grayscale's long-term layout.
Grayscale Investments realizes long-term returns through spot and futures hedging.
Strategy Logic: Buy Bitcoin spot and short long-term futures contracts to lock in future delivery prices and earn risk-free arbitrage.
Operational Example: Buy 1,000 BTC spot at 50,000 USDT each.
Short an equivalent 1-year futures contract (agreed delivery price 55,000 USDT).
Hold spot and earn premium income from futures contracts (annualized about 10%).
Risk Control: Ensure spot security through cold storage and reduce counterparty risk by diversifying across multiple exchanges.
Applicable Scenario: Suitable for institutional investors who are bullish on Bitcoin long-term but wish to hedge against short-term volatility.#币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币 $BTC $ETH 
