How to judge the speed of cryptocurrency price decline and rebound ability? 1. Decline speed: distinguish 3 core characteristics between sharp and gradual declines.

1. K-line patterns and trend slope

Sharp decline (strong rebound potential): consecutive large bearish candlesticks (long body, no lower shadow), 4-hour line trend steep (angle > 45°), such as extreme market conditions when it drops 8% within 24 hours.

Gradual decline (weak rebound signal): decreasing bearish candlestick body, alternating small bearish and bullish candlesticks (e.g., stepwise daily decline), trend line angle < 30°, daily average decline of 1%-2%.

2. Trading volume verification

Volume-increased sharp decline: trading volume surges by more than 50% (compared to the average of the previous 3 days), panic selling concentrated release (e.g., when a certain cryptocurrency plummets 40% in a single day, volume expands by 3 times).

Volume-reduced bearish decline: trading volume shrinks to below 1/3 of the peak, selling pressure continues but is sluggish, and the market lacks incremental funds.

3. Strength of support level breakdown

A sharp decline often instantaneously breaks key support (previous low, round number), with no rebound recovery;

A gradual decline will oscillate repeatedly at the support level, slowly breaking through (e.g., BTC oscillating around the $30,000 level for a week before slightly breaking down).

2. Rebound strength: 5 major predictive indicators and practical logic

1. Decline - rebound symmetry

A sharp decline is likely to see a strong rebound (magnitude 50%-61.8%), due to short-term overselling triggering technical recovery;

After a gradual decline, there is often a weak rebound (10%-20%), with selling pressure dispersed leading to insufficient momentum.

2. Technical indicator resonance signals

Bottom divergence: new low in price but MACD green bars shorten / RSI does not reach a new low (strong rebound signal, winning rate 70%);

Oversold area golden cross: KDJ/Stochastic golden cross below 20, combined with bullish candlestick wrapping the previous bearish body by 1/2, confirming the start of the rebound.

3. Volume determines quality

Effective rebounds require increased volume (30%+ compared to the declining phase), indicating major player involvement;

Volume-reduced rebounds are mostly retail self-rescue, likely to be hindered by the 5-day moving average or previous low pressure.

4. Market sentiment assistance

When the fear and greed index is < 20 (extreme fear), the rebound winning rate exceeds 60%;

Increase in exchange withdrawals and whale accumulation indicates sufficient rebound momentum.

5. Strength of resistance level breakthrough

Strong rebound: quickly recovers 1/2 of the bearish candlestick, stabilizing above the 4-hour MA50 (e.g., breaking the downward trend line and retesting for confirmation);

Weak rebound: meets resistance at previous lows, Bollinger middle track, or dense trading area, forming long upper shadow.

Three principles of practical combat: from signals to operational landing strategies

Cyclical decision-making

Ultra-short term (1-4 hours): after a sharp decline, use 15-minute K-line + MACD divergence to catch rebounds, set stop-loss at 2% below the starting point;

Short-term (daily): after a gradual decline, wait for a bullish candlestick to wrap (single-day increase > 3% and volume), lightly participate until the previous high pressure level.$ETH $BTC #币安Alpha上新 #加密市场反弹