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This week's review
From May 26 to June 2, the ice sugar orange reached a maximum of around $110,718 and a minimum close to $103,068, with a fluctuation range of about 6.19%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 103,876, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 approximately 1.21 million coins;
76000-89000 approximately 1.28 million coins;
90000-100000 approximately 1.41 million coins;
The probability of not falling below 95000~100000 in the short term is 80%;
Regarding important news
Regarding economic news
On Monday, US stock indices opened, the Nasdaq rose by 0.11%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.1%, the Dow Jones fell by 0.35%, and gold rose by 2.6% to $3376/ounce.
South Korea will hold its election vote on Tuesday. Regardless of the election results, the crypto industry will benefit, as both popular candidates Lee Jae-myung and Kim Eun-sook have promised to relax regulations and expand access to digital assets. The Bank of Korea released data showing that at the end of last year, the total value of crypto assets held by South Koreans was about $74.5 billion.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the impact of tariffs on inflation may peak in the second half of 2025, and tariff measures will push up the unemployment rate in the US, posing downside risks to the economy and job market, while inflation faces upside risks. The prospects for interest rate cuts depend on the slowdown in inflation and whether tariff measures remain at the lower end of the range. The 'good news' is that rate cuts may still be possible later this year.
Derivative market traders predict that the Federal Reserve will hold steady until September, followed by 'rapid and substantial rate cuts'.
Mellon's chief economist Vincent Reinhart stated that by June next year, the market expects the benchmark interest rate to drop sharply by 100 basis points to the range of 3.25%-3.5%. This view suggests that the Federal Reserve will urgently shift to growth preservation despite inflation concerns.
Bank of America warns that US tariffs have a more significant negative impact on the US economy and the dollar, and Bank of America expects economic data to be weak. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns that the US bond market will eventually show cracks.
The 1-year US credit default swap (CDS) has risen to 52 basis points, close to the highest level since 2023, and the debt ceiling crisis has never truly been resolved, increasing the risk of US government default.
The dollar and US bonds have depreciated, gold has found support and reached new highs, and crypto has also experienced a series of new highs recently.
Regarding crypto ecosystem news
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Corporate Finance Division released a statement on May 29, 2025, clarifying that three types of staking activities within proof of stake (PoS) networks do not constitute securities issuance and sale under the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The three types of staking forms covered include staking of node operators' own assets, self-custody staking, and staking on behalf of clients by custodial institutions.
New York City Comptroller Brad Lander rejected Mayor Eric Adams' proposal to issue BTC-backed municipal bonds. Brad Lander, who is responsible for bond issuance along with the mayor's management and budget office, stated that New York City would not issue BTC-backed bonds during his tenure, as the stability of cryptocurrencies is insufficient to fund the city's infrastructure, affordable housing, or schools.
At the ETHGlobal Prague conference, ETH founder Vitalik stated that ETH will scale L1 by about 10 times within a year, then 'take a breather' before the next leap.
Simon Gerovich, CEO of the publicly listed company Metaplanet in Japan, stated that he acquired 1,088 BTC for approximately $117.3 million and now holds a total of 8,888 BTC.
El Salvador has increased its holdings by 8 BTC over the past 7 days, bringing its total holdings to 6,194.18 BTC.
SharpLink Gaming submitted Form S-3 ASR to the SEC and has signed an ATM sales agreement with A.G.P., under which it may issue and sell up to $1 billion in common stock, most of which will be used to acquire ETH.
Analyst Rachael Lucas stated: BTC prices are at critical psychological and technical levels, which may determine the success or failure of the bull market. Indicators such as RSI and MACD show that strong bullish momentum has at least temporarily weakened, while the long-term outlook remains optimistic, suggesting that the market may be in the early stages of a new super cycle. BTC's connection to traditional financial markets is becoming increasingly close, making it more sensitive to economic data, comments from central banks in Europe and the US, and geopolitical risks.
Bloomberg reported that South Korea will hold its election vote on Tuesday. Regardless of the election results, the crypto industry will benefit. Both popular candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Kim Eun-sook, have promised to relax regulations and expand access to digital assets. The Bank of Korea released data showing that at the end of last year, the total value of crypto assets held by South Koreans was about $74.5 billion.
Cointelegraph reported that investors are struggling to cope with the changing macroeconomic environment, and cryptocurrency investors are closely watching US tariff negotiations for any signs of a possible lasting trade agreement, with analysts predicting that if an agreement is reached, it will provide an opportunity for altcoins and BTC to rise.
Coinshares weekly data shows a net inflow of $286 million into digital asset investment products last week, bringing the total over seven weeks to $10.9 billion. Last week, ETH inflows surged, reaching $321 million.
As of May 31, US BTC spot ETFs held a total of 1.2056 million BTC, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with 660,800 holdings, followed by Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC with 198,000 and 186,600 BTC, respectively.
Strategy increased its holdings by another 705 BTC last week, with founder Michael Saylor stating that their BTC accumulation plan has no upper limit, and as prices continue to rise, the difficulty of increasing BTC holdings will grow exponentially, but Strategy will accumulate BTC more efficiently.
Ryan Cohen, CEO of GameStop, views BTC as a hedge against dollar depreciation and states that if BTC ultimately serves as a hedge against dollar depreciation, it still has more upside potential.
In the June performance of BTC over the past 12 years, there have been 6 instances of gains and 6 instances of losses, with the largest increase occurring in June 2016, when the monthly increase reached 27.14%; the largest decrease occurred in June 2022, when the monthly decrease reached 37.28%.
Cointelegraph reported that investors are struggling to cope with the changing macroeconomic environment, and cryptocurrency investors are closely watching US tariff negotiations for any signs of a possible lasting trade agreement, with analysts predicting that if an agreement is reached, it will provide an opportunity for altcoins and BTC to rise.
Long-term insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state.
Medium-term exploration: To analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the likelihood of certain events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
Non-liquid long-term whales
Structure of positions held by long-term participants of different durations
Total on-chain selling pressure
Net positions of large inflows and outflows from exchanges
Crypto's US ETF
Short and long-term holders' cost lines
1. Supply side structure analysis: The certainty of continuous tightening
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's supply side continues to exhibit a structurally tightening trend, which is the most significant and stable fundamental characteristic of the current market.
Strong growth of non-liquid supply:
(Below chart non-liquid long-term whales)
The non-liquid BTC supply controlled by long-term holders or whales continues to show strong growth momentum, and its growth slope has not shown significant decay recently.
This indicates that BTC continues to transfer from high liquidity trading markets to low liquidity long-term storage addresses, effectively reducing the immediate sell pressure in the market.
1.2 Steady increase in the proportion of long-term holders:
(Below chart structure of positions held by long-term participants of different durations)
The proportion of 'realized market value' for long-term holders of over six months has slightly increased to 0.450.
This means that nearly half of the Bitcoin supply is held by steadfast long-term investors with low trading frequency, forming the market's 'keel'.
1.3 Confirmation of large net outflows from exchanges:
(Below chart total on-chain selling pressure)
It shows that recently there has been a small amount of BTC transferred to exchanges, possibly reflecting an increase in short-term trading activity or some liquidity demand.
(Below chart net positions of large inflows and outflows from exchanges)
Exchanges have once again experienced significant large net outflows.
This indicates that even with short-term two-way flows, the final direction of large capital is still withdrawing from exchanges, further reinforcing the judgment of tightening supply.
2. Dynamic analysis of the demand side: Total resilience and marginal sensitivity game.
Compared to the certainty tightening of the supply side, the demand side presents more complex and dynamic characteristics, showing that structural demand for long-term allocation still exists, but is easily disturbed by price, macro signals, and market sentiment in the short term.
2.1 Observation of the ETF fund flow's 'gear shift' period:
(Below chart BTC's US ETF)
It shows that after experiencing explosive growth in the early stages, the recent inflow rate into Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly slowed, coming close to the zero line. Although the latest day's data has slightly turned positive, the magnitude is still too small to determine a trend reversal.
However, data from the news side (such as IBIT's monthly inflows and total size) indicate that top ETF products still demonstrate strong capital-absorbing capability, suggesting that institutional demand for long-term BTC allocation has certain resilience.
The current ETF flow may be in a 'gear shift period' transitioning from 'FOMO-style influx' to 'normalized, value-driven allocation'.
2.2 Support effect of the short-term holders' cost line
(Below chart short and long-term holders' cost lines)
The average holding cost of short-term holders has steadily increased to $96,581.
The current BTC price is still above this cost line, indicating that most short-term participants are in a profitable state, which somewhat reduces the risk of large-scale sell-offs triggered by panic or unwinding. This cost line constitutes an important dynamic psychological and technical support level in the current market.
2.3 Potential catalysts for macro expectations and hedging demand:
From the perspective of news analysis, the improvement of PCE data reinforces the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, which constitutes potential liquidity support for risk assets such as BTC.
At the same time, concerns about the global economy (especially risks in the US bond market and expectations of dollar depreciation) may also enhance BTC's appeal as a store of value and risk-hedging tool (as per the views of GameStop's CEO).
These macro-level demand drivers will have a significant impact on the demand side for BTC based on their realization degree and pace.
3. Market equilibrium state assessment: Demand rebalancing and expectation play under strong supply constraints.
Based on the analysis of the supply side and demand side, the current short- to medium-term equilibrium state of the Bitcoin market can be defined as 'the demand rebalancing and expectation game under strong supply constraints'.
3.1 Dynamic evolution of supply-demand imbalance: The sustained structural tightening on the supply side, along with short-term fluctuations in marginal momentum on the demand side, constitute the main contradiction in the current market.
In the context of increasingly scarce supply, any positive signals on the demand side (such as the continuous recovery of ETF flow, macro positive developments) may be amplified, pushing prices upward.
Conversely, if demand continues to weaken, prices may seek to find a supply-demand equilibrium point through sideways oscillation or moderate pullback.
3.2 Interpretation of internal activities of exchanges: A slight increase in transfer amounts to exchanges coexists with large net outflows, which may reflect an increase in internal turnover rate and short-term trading activity. This provides acquisition opportunities for long-term buyers and may also increase price volatility in the short term.
3.3 Identification of key turning points:
Upward turning point signals: Continuous and significant net inflow recovery in ETF fund flows; further clarification or anticipation of interest rate cuts on the macro level (such as positive resolutions of tariff issues); and unexpected regulatory environment benefits.
Downward turning point signals: Continuous net outflows from ETFs, or inflows far below expectations; the price effectively breaks below the short-term holders' cost line ($96,581) and triggers a chain reaction; severe negative shocks emerge on the macro level (such as unexpected inflation rebound, or sharp deterioration in tariff issues).
4. Conclusion and outlook: Seeking Alpha amid certainty and uncertainty.
Based on the latest on-chain data and news analysis, the short- to medium-term outlook for the Bitcoin market exhibits the following characteristics:
Fundamentals are strongly supported: The structural tightening on the supply side is the most crucial foundation for a long-term bull market, providing solid bottom support for prices.
The demand side is entering an observation period: the long-term trend of institutional demand remains optimistic, but the volatility of ETF flows and sensitivity to macro signals have increased in the short term; the market is actively seeking new, sustainable demand drivers.
Short term: The market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation, with strong support from the short-term holders' cost line ($96,581). However, given the marginal sensitivity of ETF flows and the high dependence on macro signals (especially the progress of tariff negotiations and the actual interest rate cut path of the Federal Reserve), volatility around this line may intensify.
Upward catalysts:
The ETF fund flow shows continuous, significant net inflow recovery (with daily stability at several hundred million levels); on the macro level, interest rate cut expectations have been confirmed beyond expectations (such as the Federal Reserve's clear dovish shift before September); and substantial regulatory benefits have emerged (such as key progress in the digital asset market clarity act).
Downward risk points:
ETF flows continue to weaken or turn into significant net outflows; macro 'black swan' events (such as a sharp deterioration in tariff issues leading to a global increase in risk aversion, but funds do not choose BTC as a safe haven); the price effectively breaks below the short-term holders' cost line and triggers a wider range of stop losses.
Risk focus point:
Macro uncertainty (especially regarding tariff issues) and the sustainability of ETF flows are the biggest risk points in the short term.
For market participants, the current strategy should be to fully recognize the long-term benefits of the supply side while closely monitoring marginal changes on the demand side and the evolution of the macro environment.
In the 'demand rebalancing and expectation game under strong supply constraints', precise data tracking, rational expectation management, and keen capture of key turning point signals are key to excess returns.
Medium term exploration
Structural analysis model of various price levels
Liquidity supply volume
Incremental model
USDC purchasing power composite score
(Below chart structural analysis model of various price levels)
The current stock ceiling is around 108000, and the market is overall in a profitable state. From a static structural perspective, this may be a good take-profit area, even temporarily ignoring the results and processes of market dynamic games to reduce decision-making paths.
(Below chart liquidity supply volume)
Liquidity supply volume is currently in a phase of gradual decline, indicating that it may be a market with weak liquidity.
What follows may be a slowdown in overall sentiment.
If the market continues to slide under the current state, it may enter a brief consolidation and adjustment phase.
(Below chart incremental model)
Incremental is currently in a phase of decline and contraction.
When the market faces overall take-profit pressure, if there is a lack of incremental supply, it may reduce the upward momentum and price sustainability.
(Below chart USDC purchasing power composite score)
Compared to before, the purchasing power score of USDC has dropped one rating, currently only at the 'high' level.
There may currently be a slight shift in loss of purchasing power from the US market, with weakened momentum status.
Short-term observation
Derivative risk coefficient
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivative trading volume
Option implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer volume
New addresses and active addresses
Ice sugar orange exchange net positions
Auntie exchange net positions
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Derivative rating: Risk coefficient is in the neutral area, with moderate derivative risk.
(Below chart derivative risk coefficient)
The market has produced a small correction, and the derivative risk coefficient has moved from the red zone to the neutral area. This week, there are no special expectations based solely on derivatives.
(Below chart option intention transaction ratio)
The proportion of put options is at a mid-high level, and trading volume is at the median.
(Below chart derivative trading volume)
Derivative trading volume is at the median.
(Below chart option implied volatility)
The implied volatility of options has only seen low amplitude fluctuations in the short term.
Sentiment status rating: Neutral
(Below chart profit and loss transfer volume)
The market's small correction has only seen a slight amount of panic chips sold. Current market positive sentiment and panic sentiment are both at low levels.
(Below chart new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a mid-low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC and ETH are in a state of continuous large outflows.
(Below chart ice sugar orange exchange net positions)
Currently, BTC is continuously experiencing large outflows.
(Below chart E-Tai trading exchange net positions)
A large outflow of ETH.
(Below chart high-weight selling pressure)
Currently, there is no high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power remained flat compared to last week.
(Below chart global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power remained flat compared to last week.
(Below chart USDT exchange net positions)
Stablecoin purchasing power remained flat compared to last week.
This week's summary:
Summary of news:
The latest market news depicts a scene where crypto assets are facing a difficult choice amid the macroeconomic 'double-edged sword' (interest rate cut expectations VS tariff risks) and the 'dawn' of the internal regulatory environment.
The SEC's favorable clarification on PoS injects key certainties into industry development, and deep institutional participation and strategic adoption by enterprises are reshaping the fundamental supply-demand dynamics of the market.
However, the Federal Reserve's ultimate policy path is still constrained by complex macro games, and short-term market sentiment is also inevitably affected by external noise.
Short term: The market may continue its oscillating pattern and is highly sensitive to macro signals (especially the progress of tariff negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting statements). If tariff risks are effectively controlled and further consolidation of interest rate cut expectations occurs, it is expected to bring a new round of upward momentum for BTC and ETH. Conversely, one should be wary of the risk of technical pullbacks.
Medium term: As the positive effects of the SEC's clarification on PoS gradually emerge and institutional allocation continues to deepen, the ETH ecosystem is expected to welcome developmental opportunities (as it has been suppressed over the past year, changes will not be significant). BTC, as a store of value and macro hedge tool, will continue to receive attention against the backdrop of global economic uncertainty. Further clarification of the regulatory framework (such as the policies of the new South Korean government) will be an important catalyst.
Long term: Whether the crypto market's 'new super cycle' can truly take shape depends on its ability to achieve a fundamental shift from speculative-driven to value-driven on the increasingly improved regulatory track, and successfully respond to competition and integration from the traditional financial system, as well as challenges from other emerging technologies (attention positioning). Vitalik's grand plans for ETH L1 scaling, if successfully implemented, will greatly enhance its application value and network effects, potentially laying a solid foundation for long-term growth.
For market participants, the core strategy at the current stage should be based on a profound understanding of the coexistence of 'structural optimism' and 'cyclical caution'.
Maintain composure, respond flexibly to short-term fluctuations, and continue to pay attention to long-term signals that can fundamentally change industry development (such as key regulatory breakthroughs, disruptive ecological innovations, and the strategic adoption of different countries).
On-chain long-term insight:
The structural tightening on the supply side remains the most crucial foundation for a long-term bull market, providing solid bottom support for prices;
The long-term trend of institutional demand remains optimistic, but the volatility of ETF flows and sensitivity to macro signals have increased in the short term;
The market is actively seeking new, sustainable demand drivers.
In the short term, it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating pattern, with prices fluctuating between the short-term holders' cost line ($96,581) and previous highs.
Directional breakthroughs require clearer catalysts.
Risk focus point: Macro uncertainty (especially regarding tariff issues) and the sustainability of ETF flows are the biggest risk points in the short term.
Market positioning:
The current strategy should be to fully recognize the long-term benefits of the supply side while closely monitoring marginal changes on the demand side and the evolution of the macro environment.
Currently, the overall state is 'demand rebalancing and expectation game under strong supply constraints'.
On-chain medium-term exploration:
The overall market is profitable, with around 108000 being the stock ceiling, simplifying the decision-making path.
Liquidity supply is decreasing, market liquidity is weak, and sentiment is slowing down or entering a consolidation period.
Incremental contraction phase, lack of supply weakens the upward momentum and price sustainability.
USDC purchasing power score has dropped to 'high', with slight capital outflow and weakened momentum status.
Market positioning:
Cautious, wait-and-see
The market is profitable, but liquidity is declining, incremental contraction, and USDC purchasing power is weakening, momentum is weakening, and it may currently be in a consolidation and adjustment phase.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk coefficient is in the neutral area, with moderate derivative risk.
New active addresses are at a mid-low level.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
Exchange net positions of BTC and ETH are in a state of continuous large outflows.
Global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power remained flat compared to last week.
The probability of not falling below 95000~100000 in the short term is 80%;
Market positioning:
In the short term, there are fewer chips to take profits at the current price level, and the purchasing power is sufficient to support it. This week, the market is expected to be influenced by derivatives while remaining oscillatory, with a low probability of a direct large pullback.
Risk warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not provide directional opinions for investment; please approach cautiously and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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