Comprehensive Analysis of the Evening of June 3 and Risk Warning and Market Outlook (Please Read Carefully)

1. Overview of Short-term Trends

From the afternoon to the evening, the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. BTC dipped to a low of $104,800 and is currently oscillating around $105,000, maintaining within the rising channel at the four-hour level. ETH stabilized around $2,550 after a synchronous pullback, and the overall market remains in a bullish structure but faces short-term resistance tests.

2. In-depth Interpretation of Technical Indicators

◦ Candlestick Patterns: The BTC four-hour chart forms a combination of 'top reversal + hammer + doji', showing that after a short-term bearish test, the bulls form effective resistance at the support level ($104,000-$104,500), which is a typical consolidation signal.

◦ Volume-Price Relationship: During the pullback phase, trading volume shrank by about 30% compared to the previous day's peak, indicating that the selling pressure from bears has not effectively expanded, and bullish control still exists.

◦ MACD Indicator: BTC's four-hour MACD red bars continue to extend, with the dual lines expanding after a golden cross above the 0-axis, showing that bullish momentum has entered an enhancement phase from the repair phase. ETH's MACD shows a similar signal, with momentum strength slightly weaker than BTC.

◦ Key Levels: Resistance at $106,500 (BTC previous high + four-hour Bollinger Band upper limit), support at $104,000 (50-period moving average + intra-day low resonance area).

2. Market Logic and Capital Situation Analysis

1. Macroeconomic Driving Factors

◦ With the Federal Reserve's June interest rate meeting approaching, market expectations for a 'pause in interest rate hikes' are rising. Cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, benefit from expectations of liquidity easing, with clear signs of capital migrating from traditional financial markets to digital assets.

◦ The Grayscale GBTC premium rate has narrowed for three consecutive days to -18.5%, significantly recovering from last week's -25%, reflecting a relief in institutional investors' pessimism towards BTC.

2. Capital Flow and Position Changes

◦ According to Glassnode data, BTC whale addresses (holding more than 10,000 coins) have net increased by 12,000 coins in the last 24 hours, with holdings rising to a historical high of 6.82 million coins; ETH whale addresses have also increased by 500,000 coins, reflecting institutional positioning in mainstream coins.

◦ In the derivatives market, the BTC perpetual contract funding rate remains at +0.015%, indicating that the willingness of bulls to open positions is stronger than that of bears, but the total liquidation amount across the network has reached $180 million in 24 hours, signaling caution for short-term chasing highs.

3. Logical Operations Strategy and Risk Control

1. Support for Long Logic

◦ Technical Aspects: The short-term pullback has not broken key support, and the candlestick pattern and indicators form a resonance of 'stop decline + momentum enhancement', which is consistent with the characteristics of bullish consolidation.

◦ Capital Situation: A strong supply-demand balance point has formed around $104,000 under the support of whale accumulation and spot buying. After breaking the resistance level of $106,500, there is hope to open up upward space.

2. Risk Warning and Response Plan

◦ Potential Risks: If BTC falls below $103,800 (stop loss level), it may trigger programmatic trading stop-loss selling, leading the market to test $102,000 (support from the 60-day moving average at the daily level); if ETH breaks $2,520, vigilance is needed for a pullback to $2,450.

◦ Position Management: It is recommended that a single position does not exceed 8%-10% of total funds. The combination of BTC and ETH holdings can diversify risk, and an additional 20% position can be added after breaking through resistance levels.

4. Market Outlook

In the short term, the market's oscillation before the $106,500 resistance level is a typical accumulation before a breakout. With continuous accumulation of bullish momentum, the probability of a breakout in the evening is relatively high. If it successfully stands above $106,500, the next target can be seen at $108,000-$110,000; if it encounters resistance and falls back, attention should be paid to the effectiveness of $104,000 support. It is recommended to maintain a low bullish strategy, strictly follow stop-loss signals, and avoid emotional holding of positions.