Current situation (June 3, 2025):
- Price: ~$0.45–$0.47 (USD, based on current data).
- Context: Cardano is a first-level blockchain focused on scalability, sustainability, and smart contracts. Market capitalization: ~$16–$18 billion (rank ~10). The price is supported by ecosystem development and updates.
Technical forecast for 2026:
- Prices:
- Optimistic: $1–$2.50 (growth of 120–450%) in a bull market and success of new features.
- Neutral: $0.60–$1 (growth of 30–120%).
- Pessimistic: $0.30–$0.40 during market correction or regulatory restrictions.
- Levels:
- Support: $0.40–$0.43, $0.30–$0.35.
- Resistance: $0.50–$0.60, $0.80–$1.
- Trend: Bullish on long-term timeframes (W1, MN). RSI (~45–55) is neutral, 50/200 MA confirm a bullish trend, but consolidation is possible at low volumes.
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- The Chang update (2024) completed the transition to decentralized governance (Voltaire).
- Growth of DeFi (TVL ~$300 million), NFTs, and dApps (e.g., Midnight for privacy).
- Staking: APR ~3–5%, about 65% ADA is staked.
- Partnerships: projects in Africa (Ethiopia, education), integration with CBDC.
- Institutional interest: potential ETFs, increase in addresses (46.3 million).
- Risks:
- Regulatory restrictions (SEC, classification as a security).
- Competition from Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain.
- Low TVL compared to competitors, slow dApps adoption.
- Dependence on BTC and market volatility.
Recommendation:
- Investors: Buy on correction to $0.40–$0.43, stop below $0.30. Target: $0.80–$1. Staking for passive income.
- Traders: Buy on breakout at $0.60, target $0.80–$1. Sell below $0.40, target $0.30–$0.35.
- Risk: 1–2% of the deposit, consider volatility.
Risks: Regulation, competition, low DeFi activity, BTC drop.
