The parallel dollar in Venezuela is averaged using various platforms as a reference, such as Binance.
The exchange rate gap between the official dollar and the parallel dollar is nearly 30%.
Asdrúbal Oliveros, a Venezuelan economist and director of the socioeconomic analysis firm Datanalisis, asserts that the parallel dollar and USDT, the largest stablecoin in the world, maintain a strong correlation in the country's currency market.
In a post by X, the specialist stated that more than 80% of the transactions at currency exchange desks to acquire foreign currencies are conducted through cryptocurrency platforms. Indeed, the price of USDT serves as a reference to determine the exchange rate of the parallel dollar, a key indicator in the Venezuelan economy, where the gap between this and the official dollar hovers around 30%.
Oliveros questions the idea that the so-called "crypto dollar" operates independently of the parallel market, a stance that some have defended in recent debates. In his opinion, the interconnection is evident, given that transactions in applications like Binance, one of the most used platforms in Venezuela, directly influence the parallel rate.
The economist points out that attempting to unlink both markets makes no sense, considering the volume of operations that pass through these digital gateways.
In Venezuela, the use of cryptocurrencies like USDT has grown due to the difficulty in accessing cash dollars and the constant devaluation of the bolívar. Recently, CriptoNoticias reported that the crypto dollar, measured on platforms like Binance, exceeded 100 bolívares per unit in March 2025, reflecting inflationary pressure and demand for foreign currencies.
The exchange rate gap between the official dollar, controlled by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), and the parallel rate remains a determining factor in the economy. Currently, the official exchange rate lags behind, while the parallel rate responds more quickly to market dynamics, including speculation and the limited supply of foreign currencies.
The use of USDT as a bridge for these operations has allowed many Venezuelans to navigate currency restrictions, but it has also tied its value to the behavior of the parallel dollar.
The parallel dollar has experienced sustained increases in recent months, driven by political uncertainty and inflation. Experts consulted by CriptoNoticias estimate that this trend could continue, although the ceiling will depend on factors such as the stability of USDT and the government's ability to inject foreign currencies into the official market.
In this context, Oliveros' analysis emphasizes how cryptocurrencies have ceased to be an isolated phenomenon to become a pillar of the informal financial system.
The currency exchange desks, partially regulated by the state, have found in cryptocurrency platforms an agile tool for operations. Users buy USDT with bolívares and then convert it to other currencies or use it as a store of value, a process that directly impacts the exchange rate of the parallel market. This dynamic has generated a hybrid market, where the digital and informal intertwine, challenging narratives that seek to separate them.
The economist insists that the correlation between both markets is not a hypothesis, but an observable reality. The volume of transactions in crypto-assets, especially in USDT, reflects the dependence of Venezuelans on these platforms to protect their income.
As the parallel dollar and USDT continue to rise, projections about their behavior generate uncertainty. Although all indicators suggest that the correlation noted by Oliveros could intensify if cryptocurrency platforms gain more ground, a likely scenario in a context of restrictions and de facto dollarization.
Author: Jesús Herrera, reporter for CriptoNoticias
