🟢 Optimistic Scenario (10–20% probability)
✅ Binance maintains stable P2P operations, using private banks (Banesco, Banplus, Provincial, Bancamiga) and avoiding any friction with the Venezuelan government.
✅ The government, while still controlling the exchange market, does not directly interfere with global platforms like Binance for fear of generating international noise.
✅ Venezuelan users continue to operate with USDT and other stablecoins as a store of value against inflation, with good liquidity and without serious interruptions.
✅ Binance implements technological improvements (such as multi-currency P2P payments and simplified apps) that reinforce its leadership in the country.
💬 Risks: Limited; some occasional blocks, but nothing systemic.
🟡 Moderate Scenario (50–60% probability)
⚠️ The government intensifies controls over the parallel market and indirectly pressures platforms like Binance. They do not formally prohibit them but issue public warnings, tighten surveillance on large traders, and start closing suspicious bank accounts.
⚠️ Binance, to protect itself, limits payment methods, increases KYC requirements, reduces the maximum volume allowed per transaction, and may even temporarily suspend pairs with bolívares (VES).
⚠️ Users begin to partially migrate to alternative channels: small regional exchanges, lesser-known platforms, OTC groups (over-the-counter), even Telegram and WhatsApp.
💬 Risks: High operational uncertainty, potential fund freezes, lower liquidity, higher spreads (buy/sell difference).
🔴 Pessimistic Scenario (20–30% probability)
⛔ The Venezuelan government openly prohibits P2P operations or sanctions platforms like Binance, accusing them of being responsible for speculation on the parallel dollar.
⛔ Binance decides, due to international regulatory pressure or legal risks, to completely suspend P2P operations in Venezuela. Venezuelan users remain disconnected from their VES accounts, although they could continue using Binance for pure crypto (crypto to crypto).
⛔ Large traders and merchants exclusively move to operate in informal markets or decentralized exchanges (DEX), with a very high risk of scams and legal issues.
💬 Risks: Freezing of local funds, loss of access to P2P services, potential criminalization of informal operations.
📌 General recommendations for users
✅ Stay updated with local news and Binance announcements.
✅ Do not concentrate all funds on a single platform.
✅ Avoid large trades that attract attention.
✅ Evaluate alternative options (DEX, cold wallets, OTC) but always prioritize security.
✅ Maintain a diversified portfolio among crypto, hard currencies, and physical assets.
