Some say cryptocurrencies are a Ponzi scheme, a bubble destined to collapse; others claim Web3 is a revolution, a new stage of civilization driven by technology. These viewpoints are sharply opposed, but fundamentally, the underlying logic of business has never changed. Whether it's Web2 moving from portal websites to mobile apps, or Web3 transitioning from token storytelling to infrastructure competition, the path to prosperity is similar—only Web3 embeds the story into code and hides capital within protocols.


Web3 is replicating the development path of Web2

Looking back over the past decade, the development of the internet in China is very clear: first attracting investment through concepts, burning money to grab users, then optimizing operations and pursuing profitability, ultimately forming a stable ecosystem. Web3 is now following a similar route, with project parties attracting users through token issuance (TGE) and airdrops, making competition akin to a 'user-swapping' contest. Next, let's look at how Web3 has arrived at today and its possible future directions.


Four stages of internet development (Lessons from Web2)

Story-driven, concept-first (Before 2010)

The early internet attracted capital by 'telling stories'. 'Internet +' became a universal label; any sector like healthcare, education, or transportation could secure investment just by attaching this term. Entrepreneurs were busy writing business plans (BP), while investors chased after intriguing 'big stories', indifferent to whether the products were mature. Concepts like O2O and the sharing economy came and went, valuations skyrocketed, and whoever first occupied the advantageous position gained the upper hand.

Burning money to expand and seize traffic (2010–2018)

After the stories were told, it entered the phase of burning money to seize the market. From the taxi wars between Didi and Kuaidi to the bike-sharing competition between Mobike and Ofo, project parties attracted users with low prices and subsidies: taxis for a few yuan, bike rides for a penny, and even free meals and haircuts. The core issue was not the quality of the product, but who could burn more money and grab more users. The traffic in this phase was bought with capital, but retaining users became a new challenge.

Meticulous cultivation, building a closed loop (2018–2022)

After the traffic dividend disappeared, the market returned to reality: how to retain users and make business models sustainable? Many projects that relied on subsidies collapsed, such as Street Power and Xiaolan Bikes. However, surviving projects like Meituan and Pinduoduo relied on real scenario needs and efficient operations, forming a complete loop from traffic to service. They no longer focus solely on user numbers but emphasize efficiency, retention, and value creation.

Ecosystem solidification, technological breakthroughs (2023 to present)

Today, the internet landscape is basically stable, with major platforms controlling traffic and supply chains, and competition has turned into a contest of ecosystem capabilities. New players wishing to break through must rely on technological innovation. For example, ByteDance did not compete for territory in the existing ecosystem but instead restructured content distribution with algorithms, creating its own business loop. This shows that even as the market tends to solidify, technological breakthroughs can still open new paths.

The Present and Future of Web3

Web3 is currently in an early stage similar to Web2: attracting users through token issuance and airdrops, and storytelling to attract investment. However, in the future, it will also transition from 'burning money to attract users' to 'real-world applications' and 'technological breakthroughs', much like Web2. AI could be a key driving force that helps Web3 build real scenarios, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT applications, creating a sustainable business loop.

In summary, Web3 is not a brand-new magic; it is following the old path of Web2, just repackaged. In the future, Web3 must rely on solving real problems and integrating AI technology to truly break through and become a new stage that is more than just 'stories'.