MVRV Z-Score is an indicator used to assess the market valuation of Bitcoin. It evaluates whether the price is high or low by comparing Bitcoin's current market capitalization with its realized market capitalization, helping us identify the tops and bottoms of market cycles. Currently, this indicator is around 2 to 3, in the 'neutral' zone, still far from the 'red zone' (7 to 9) where the market is overheated. Historically, during the peak of a Bitcoin bull market, this indicator can soar above 7, such as when Bitcoin prices reached $60,000 to $65,000 in early 2021, with the indicator exceeding 7. In the bear market of 2022, the indicator fell below 0 (green zone), indicating that the market was oversold.
Now the indicator is slightly above 2, in the blue/yellow zone, indicating that Bitcoin prices are not considered expensive. Technically, there is still significant upside potential before this cycle ends. Even if Bitcoin rises to $100,000 to $110,000, based on MVRV standards, it would not be considered 'expensive.' If Bitcoin repeats historical peak patterns, the MVRV Z-Score could rise to between 5 and 7, or even higher.
This suggests that there may be substantial upward potential in the market in the future. Based on historical patterns of MVRV, when Bitcoin prices reach their peak, they may far exceed $100,000, potentially even surpassing $200,000, depending on the changes in realized market capitalization over the coming months.