Bitcoin $BTC tonight's trend is key, focusing on the position of $104800. The current price is stuck at $104818, only 1.7% away from today's low of $103032, while facing strong resistance at $116344, like a mountain pressing down. There are three important signals worth noting:

From the market's capital flow perspective, there are a large number of sell orders at the $111999 price level. For Bitcoin to rise, it must first digest this selling pressure. Meanwhile, the buy orders around $103000 are very weak; once the price breaks below this level, it could directly drop to $101500.

Technical indicators are also releasing signals. The MACD green bars are gradually shrinking, indicating that bullish strength is weakening; the Bollinger Bands are narrowing into a tight range, which usually means that there could be a sharp fluctuation of around 10% within 24 hours. The price has been hovering around the 30-day line ($104833) for 8 hours, posing a risk of breaking below at any moment.

Tonight, two scenarios may occur:

High probability scenario (60%): The price first breaks below $104800, triggering a rush of bullish stop-loss orders, and then quickly drops to $101500. Investors who cannot withstand the volatility may need to consider reducing their positions.

Low probability scenario (40%): If it stabilizes above $105000 with increased volume, it may force shorts to cover their positions, pushing the price toward $107000. However, it is recommended to wait for a breakout confirmation before following up to avoid premature misjudgment.

In terms of operational advice:

Leverage traders may consider shorting at the current price, with a stop-loss set at $105000. If it breaks below $103000, they may appropriately add to their positions.

Spot holders who see the price drop below $103000 may first reduce their holdings by half and then attempt to buy in batches when the price approaches $101500.

It should be noted that the current Bollinger Bands are extremely tight, and tonight's market is likely to experience severe fluctuations. The risk of high leverage operations is extremely high, especially with leverage above 10 times, which can easily lead to liquidation during extreme volatility. In simple terms, $104833 is a key support level; if it cannot hold steady, one must be wary of the risk of decline. If looking for a rebound opportunity, one may wait for the chance near $101500. $BTC