TRB has experienced significant price fluctuations recently, surging 72% to $55 on May 28 before pulling back. On June 1, some platforms reported $40.80, down 94% from the historical high, with notable differences in quotes across platforms. The technical indicators show an oversold RSI < 30, but the bearish MACD is negative, with the 4-hour K-line showing a large bearish candle with reduced volume. The on-chain large address holdings increased by 18% over 30 days, and there was a net outflow from exchanges. However, on May 28, a whale transferred 226,700 TRB to OKX, accounting for 8.42% of the total supply, with a market cap of $74.28 million being vulnerable to financial impacts.
Tellor is advancing towards a transition to Layer 1, with the TellorLayer testnet based on the Cosmos SDK upgraded on May 22, and the mainnet is approaching; if successful, it may lead to a reevaluation of its value. The DeFi oracle market demand has reached $2 trillion, and Tellor has opportunities due to its decentralized features, but the main challenges include technology implementation, U.S.-China regulation, risk prevention in China by 2025, and competition from Chainlink. In the short term, there may be an oversold rebound, breaking through the resistance at $0.2359 or reaching $50-70; in the long term, if the upgrade is successful, the market cap could reach hundreds of millions, with prices possibly at $100-200, and institutions are looking at $86-496 by 2025.
Operational advice is to control holdings within 5%, set a 20% stop loss, for example, if $40 corresponds to $32, and to enter lightly on a pullback to the support at $0.1963 with increased volume, taking profits at the oversold RSI resistance. Pay close attention to the mainnet in July. Be cautious of leverage risks; on May 28, there was a liquidation of 556 in 4 hours, and Binance removed trading pairs, which may have a short-term impact on liquidity, but institutions are increasing their holdings against the trend during the sell-off. The 3-day outflow from exchanges was 7.83%, indicating a consolidation of positions. TRB presents both opportunities and risks, with the core focus on the successful implementation of upgrades and ecological demand.
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