6.1 The bulls completely collapse, do the bears stop falling, and how should operations proceed?

Bitcoin has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized, as this is the first Fibonacci key level from the top retracement. Over the weekend, there was a fluctuation of around 1000 points. Let's first analyze the exit situation of the contract bulls. On Binance's perpetual trading pairs, the Bitcoin contract bulls have again stopped loss or been liquidated for more than 200 million dollars, while Ethereum bulls have stopped loss or been liquidated for more than 500 million dollars. Combined with the liquidation data, this round of decline has caused the bulls to accumulate liquidations of 1 billion dollars, and the funding rates have also fully entered a negative funding rate stage. Therefore, the liquidation of the bulls has basically entered the later stages, and there may be one more round of decline to around 100,000 for the final squeeze.

Finally, Abraxas Capital's hedging positions on HyperLiquid have been fully profitable. We can also refer to when this institution's hedging positions exit to assist in judging the bottom of this round of decline. Clearly, even close to 0, everything was still fine, even when Trump said that East University violated the agreement, it was still considered stable. Moreover, Trump raised 2.44 billion dollars to buy Bitcoin. However, just after midnight, the sanctions against East University were announced, and both the S&P and BTC fell simultaneously, piercing below 104. Additionally, at 6 AM, Trump again mentioned tariffs, increasing uncertainty. The US stock market closed, so BTC bore the brunt, continuing to fluctuate downwards. The overall uncertainty regarding tariffs has increased again. It is now the weekend, so closely monitor the situation from tomorrow night to Monday daytime, during this low liquidity moment.

Currently, BTC should still hold around 102-103, as this is the lower edge of the previous fluctuation range. The 2-hour cycle shows a black three soldiers pattern combined with extremely shrinking trading volume, and the chip distribution reveals a strong resistance zone formed in the 108860-109573 area, with the current price below EMA24/52, indicating a weak medium to long-term trend. The J value has entered the oversold zone, combined with the RSI double bottom pattern, indicating a short-term rebound demand. However, if the price continues to narrow around 103000, breaking below will open up downward space. It is recommended to pay close attention to the effectiveness of the 103000 support.

Operational suggestions:

Short Bitcoin at 105500-106000, target around 102000-100000. Defense at 107000.

Short Ethereum at 2550-2580, target around 2450-2350. Defense at 2630.