The long-term investment plan based on Bitcoin (BTC) spot is designed in combination with current market characteristics and risk dimensions, with the goal of achieving steady asset appreciation through systematic strategies. The plan is divided into six core modules, covering key links such as investment logic, strategy execution, and risk management:
1. Investment underlying logic and market positioning
1. Value Anchoring and Scarcity Narrative
The core logic of Bitcoin as "digital gold" was further strengthened in 2025: after the fourth halving, the annual inflation rate dropped to 0.7% (lower than 1.5% of gold), the average daily output of miners was only 900 coins, and 63% of the circulation was held by long-term holders (holding positions for more than 1 year). There has been a significant transfer of institutional pricing power. The Bitcoin ETF management scale of asset management giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity has exceeded US$122 billion, and companies such as MicroStrategy have included Bitcoin in their balance sheets (550,000 holdings account for 2.6% of the circulation). This structure of "institutional strategic reserves + supply rigidity" provides fundamental support for long-term holding.
2. Macroeconomic hedging properties
Under global inflation pressure (US CPI in April was 3.8% year-on-year, core PCE reached 3.2%) and expectations of liquidity easing (the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September 2025 is 48.9%), the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen to 0.62, becoming a new option for capital hedging. Its "non-credit asset" characteristics are more attractive in the cycle of fiat currency depreciation, and it is suitable as a hedging tool for traditional asset portfolios.
3. Evolution of technology ecosystem
The expansion of the Lightning Network has increased the transaction speed to 100,000 TPS. Pilot projects such as Starbucks and Tesla have promoted the evolution of Bitcoin from a "value store" to a "payment tool." Sidechain technologies such as Stacks have realized smart contract functions, and the DeFi ecosystem has exceeded $8 billion in locked positions, expanding the value capture scenario. The practical breakthroughs brought about by technological iterations will increase the intrinsic value of Bitcoin in the long term.
II. Investment Strategy Execution Framework
1. Fund allocation principles
- Strategic allocation ratio: It is recommended to allocate 5%-10% of investable assets to Bitcoin, which is in line with the long-term positioning of the "digital asset category". If the investment portfolio size is 1 million yuan, the initial investment is 50,000-100,000 yuan, and the subsequent investment is gradually increased according to the fixed investment rhythm.
- Risk isolation mechanism: strictly follow the principle of "idle money investment" to ensure that there is no liquidity demand for funds within 3 years. Historical data shows that investors who hold Bitcoin for less than 6 months have a 65% chance of losing money, and short-term capital participation is easily forced to sell due to volatility.
2. Fixed investment implementation plan
- Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA): Invest a fixed amount (e.g., 5,000 yuan) on the 15th of each month, regardless of the price. This strategy can smooth the impact of market fluctuations and avoid timing risks. For example, in May 2025, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $74,000 and $112,000, and fixed investment can effectively dilute the cost.
- Panic/Greed Adjustment Mechanism: When the Fear and Greed Index <25 (extreme fear), buy an additional 3-month fixed investment amount; when the index>85 (extreme greed), take profit of 20%-30% of the position in batches. For example, when Bitcoin falls to $105,000 on May 30, 2025, the panic index can be triggered to increase investment.
3. Holding period and exit mechanism
- Minimum holding period: A 5-year lock-up period is set to match the Bitcoin "halving cycle-price reaction" rule (the average increase in 12-18 months after halving exceeds 300%).
- Dynamic rebalancing: If the US 10-year Treasury yield breaks through 4.5% (a signal of capital flowing back to traditional assets), reduce holdings to below 3% of the portfolio; if geopolitical conflicts occur (such as the Taiwan Strait crisis), increase holdings to 15% as a "digital safe-haven asset."
3. Risk Management System
1. Response to market fluctuations
- Key technical points: Long-term support level is $100,000 (200-week moving average + MicroStrategy holding cost center), and if it falls below, it may drop to $80,000; standing firm at $115,000 can be regarded as the beginning of a new round of upward cycle, with the target looking at the upper limit of the historical volatility range of $150,000.
- Derivatives hedging: You can configure a 5% position of Bitcoin call options (strike price of $100,000, term of 1 year) to hedge against extreme downside risks. At the same time, use CME Bitcoin futures contracts for hedging to lock in long-term returns.
2. Compliance and Security
- Avoid legal risks: Bitcoin transactions in China are still illegal and must be conducted through compliant overseas platforms (such as Coinbase and OKX), avoiding the use of domestic bank accounts for deposits and withdrawals. It is recommended to invest in compliant ETFs through the Hong Kong "Cross-border Financial Management Connect" channel to reduce legal risks.
- Asset security plan: Store more than 90% of Bitcoin in a cold wallet (Ledger Nano X or Trezor Model T is recommended), use "shard storage" for private keys (such as storing 24 mnemonics in 3 physical safes), and back up to an offline hard drive regularly.
3. Liquidity Management
- Emergency Reserve: Keep 6 months of living expenses as fiat currency reserves to avoid being forced to sell Bitcoin due to unexpected expenses.
- Layered selling strategy: When the price breaks through the upper limit of historical volatility (such as $150,000), sell 5% of the position for every 10% increase and gradually realize the profits.
4. Macro and Micro Monitoring Indicators
1. Macroeconomic indicators
- Inflation and interest rates: Track US CPI and core PCE data. If inflation continues to be above 3% and the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, be wary of the siphoning effect of traditional assets.
- US Dollar Index: When the US dollar weakens (DXY<90), Bitcoin's appeal as a non-sovereign asset increases; a stronger US dollar (DXY>105) may trigger a short-term sell-off.
2. On-chain data monitoring
- Long-term holders’ holdings: If the number of addresses holding positions for more than 1 year continues to increase, it indicates that market confidence is solid; if a large number of long-term holders transfer assets to exchanges, be wary of selling pressure.
- Miner behavior: When miners' holdings decrease for three consecutive months, it may indicate that prices are under short-term pressure; an increase in miners' holdings sends a positive signal.
3. Sentiment and capital flow
- Derivatives market: The perpetual contract funding rate remains at 0.01%-0.02%, indicating a balance between long and short positions. If the rate continues to be >0.05% or <-0.03%, a long-short double explosion may occur.
- Institutional capital inflows: Pay attention to the premium rate of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. A positive premium (such as >5%) reflects a strong willingness of institutions to increase their holdings.
V. Tax and Compliance Planning
1. Tax treatment
- Capital Gains Tax: There is controversy over China's taxation of virtual currency transactions, but Shanghai tax authorities clearly require that 20% personal income tax be paid based on "property transfer income." It is recommended to generate transaction records through compliant platforms (such as Coinbase) and actively declare and pay taxes.
- Cross-border tax optimization: If you invest through a Hong Kong account, you need to understand Hong Kong's profit tax policy (tax rate is 16.5%) and make reasonable planning by using the tax agreement between the two places.
2. Compliance Operation Guide
- Identity authentication: Choose an exchange that holds licenses such as US MSB and Hong Kong VASP, complete KYC/AML authentication, and avoid using anonymous accounts.
- Transaction record preservation: Keep at least 5 years of transaction records and wallet address transfer records in preparation for tax audits.
6. Psychological Construction and Cognitive Upgrading
1. Cultivate an anti-fragile mentality
- Volatility desensitization training: Through simulated trading or small-amount real trading, you can adapt to the 20% daily fluctuation of Bitcoin. Establish the reverse thinking of "price drop = discount purchase", such as when the price plummets by 3% on May 30, 2025, it will be regarded as an opportunity to increase the position.
- Emotional management tools: Use Notion to create an "investment emotional diary" to record the psychological state of each trading decision and identify irrational behavior patterns.
2. Continuous learning system
- Core knowledge reserve: Read classic works such as "Bitcoin White Paper" and "Digital Gold" carefully to understand the underlying logic of blockchain technology.
- Information screening mechanism: Pay attention to on-chain data platforms (such as Glassnode), institutional research reports (such as Morgan Stanley’s cryptocurrency report), and block social media noise.
3. Community and resource integration
- Participate in the developer ecosystem: Deeply bind the ecosystem value by sponsoring Bitcoin core development projects (such as Lightning Network node operations).
- Join an investment community: Choose a community led by CFA charterholders or senior practitioners to get professional analysis and risk warnings.
Summarize
The essence of Bitcoin investment is "trading time for space", and its long-term value comes from technological innovation, institutional change and human demand for decentralized finance. When implementing this plan, three core principles must be kept in mind: first, never invest money that you cannot afford to lose; second, always maintain awe and rationality of the market; third, regard investment as a process of cognitive realization and continuously improve professional capabilities. Through systematic strategies and dynamic risk management, Bitcoin is expected to become a key asset to achieve the goal of "getting rich slowly".
