Namaste dosto! Chaliye, dekhte hain 4-hour ke BTC/USDT chart pe kya chal raha hai.
Overall Price Action aur Trend:
Current Price: Abhi Bitcoin ka price $104,770.92 chal raha hai.
Recent Trend: Agar hum 24 May se dekhein, toh Bitcoin clear downtrend mein hai. Naye lower highs (neeche ke peaks) aur lower lows (neeche ke bottoms) ban rahe hain, jo bearish trend ka sign hai.
Recent Bounce: Chart ke bilkul end mein ek green candle dikh rahi hai. Iska matlab hai ki recent low se thodi recovery ya chota sa bounce aaya hai.
Important Levels aur Indicators:
1. Price Levels:
Highs (Oopri Levels): Price 21 May ko $111,980 tak gaya tha, phir uske baad $109,000 (24-25 May) aur $107,000 (28-29 May) ke around lower highs bane.
Lows (Neeche ke Levels): 21 May ke high ke baad, price ko $102,000 (19-20 May) ke around support mila. Abhi recently, yeh usse bhi neeche gaya aur $103,000 - $103,500 ke aas-paas naya low banaya, jahan se abhi bounce aaya hai.
Current Area: Abhi price $104,000 - $105,000 ke range mein ghoom raha hai.
2. Moving Averages (EMAs):
EMA(7) (Red Line - $104,426.69): Yeh sabse choti EMA hai. Price abhi is line ke thoda upar hai, jo ek bahut chota sa positive sign hai.
EMA(25) (Purple Line - $106,102.99): Price abhi 25-period EMA ke neeche hai. Bullish reversal ke liye, price ko is line ke upar acchi tarah break karke hold karna hoga.
EMA(99) (Blue Line - $106,018.88): Price 99-period EMA ke bhi neeche hai, jo ek strong resistance level hai. Recent mein 25 EMA ne 99 EMA ko neeche se cross kiya hai (jise "death cross" kehte hain), jo is timeframe par bearish sentiment ko aur pakka karta hai.
EMA Crossovers: Fast EMAs (7 & 25) 27 May se consistently slow EMA (99) ke neeche hi hain, aur 7 & 25 bhi aapas mein neeche hi cross kar rahe hain, jo lagatar down momentum dikha raha hai.
3. Volume:
Downtrend Volume: Jab price neeche gira hai, khaaskar 27-28 May ko, toh red (selling) volume mein kaafi increase dikha hai.
Current Volume: Abhi jo green candle bani hai, uska volume moderate lag raha hai, bahut strong nahi. Iska matlab hai ki yeh bounce abhi pakka reversal nahi, sirf ek chota recovery ho sakta hai.
4. RSI(6) (Relative Strength Index):
Current RSI: 48.51.
Interpretation: RSI abhi neutral 50 level ke aas-paas hai. 29 May ke around yeh oversold zone (30 se neeche) mein gaya tha, jiske baad generally bounce aata hai, aur wahi hua bhi hai. Lekin, abhi yeh strong uptrend momentum nahi dikha raha hai (uske liye ise 70 ke upar jana hoga). RSI ka abhi neeche se upar aana thoda momentum shift indicate karta hai.
Analysis aur Aage ka Outlook:
Bearish Dominance: 4-hour chart pe overall trend bearish hi hai, jisme lower highs, lower lows aur bearish EMA crossovers hain.
Immediate Resistance: Turant resistance levels 25-period EMA aur 99-period EMA hain, jo dono $106,000 - $106,100 ke aas-paas hain. Kisi bhi significant bullish move ke liye, BTC ko in levels ko break karke upar sustain karna hoga.
Potential Support: Agar yeh current bounce fail ho jata hai, toh $103,000 - $103,500 ka recent low next support banega. Agar yeh level bhi break hota hai, toh price $102,000 ya usse bhi neeche ja sakta hai.
Short-Term Bounce: Current green candle aur RSI ka oversold se upar aana short-term bounce ya consolidation dikha raha hai. Lekin, agar strong buying volume ya key resistance levels ka break nahi hota, toh yeh bounce chota hi ho sakta hai.
Key Area to Watch: $105,000 aur $106,500 ke beech ka area bahut critical hai. Agar Bitcoin is zone ko reclaim karke hold kar pata hai, toh momentum mein shift ka sign ho sakta hai. Agar in levels se rejection milti hai, toh downtrend continue hone ke chances hain.
Summary: BTC/USDT ka 4-hour chart abhi downtrend mein hai, jisme recently oversold conditions se chota sa bounce aaya hai. Price abhi EMAs ke immediate resistance se lad raha hai. Traders ko $106,000 se upar strong volume ke saath decisive break ka intezaar karna hoga ek potential reversal ke liye, nahi toh bearish pressure bana rahega.
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