BTC Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy Outperforms 99% of Investors
Proportional Control: The amount invested in dollar-cost averaging should not exceed 15% of the family's investable assets, and a single investment should not exceed 10% of monthly income. For example: For a monthly income of 20,000 yuan, set a weekly investment of 2,000 yuan in BTC, balancing risk tolerance and long-term accumulation.
Diversification Principle: Combine BTC dollar-cost averaging with Gold ETF (30%) and US Stock Index Funds (20%) to construct a cross-asset hedging portfolio that reduces the volatility risk of a single asset.
II. Dollar-Cost Averaging Implementation Plan
Frequency and Cycle: Use weekly dollar-cost averaging (e.g., every Friday at 15:00) to smooth market fluctuations using the “smile curve.” Historical data shows that weekly dollar-cost averaging has an 82% success rate during Bitcoin's 4-year cycles, outperforming random timing.
Dynamic Increment Mechanism: When the BTC price falls below 80,000 USD (near the three-year cost line) or RSI falls below 30 (oversold signal), double the dollar-cost averaging amount for that week (e.g., 2,000 yuan → 4,000 yuan) to capture panic-selling low prices.
III. Holding and Profit-Taking Logic
Core Cycle: Use the Bitcoin halving cycle (once every 4 years) as the holding benchmark, with a focus on breaking through the resistance level of 120,000 USD after the halving in April 2025, aiming to hold until 2026, with expected returns of 150%-200% (corresponding to the average historical cycle increase).
Stepped Profit-Taking:
- When the price reaches 120,000 USD (cost doubles), take profits on 30% of the position to lock in gains;
- After breaking through 150,000 USD, take profits on another 40%; leave the remaining 30% of the position as a long-term base to bet on the historical high of 200,000 USD.
IV. Risk Control and Discipline
Maximum Drawdown Tolerance: Suspend dollar-cost averaging when total account losses exceed 25%, triggering the “dollar-cost averaging dormancy mechanism,” and restart after the market stabilizes or the price rebounds by 10%.
Asset Safety: Invest in dollar-cost averaging through compliant platforms like Coinbase and Binance, transferring 50% of holdings to a cold wallet (e.g., Ledger) each quarter to avoid systemic risks from exchanges.
Psychological Construction: Reject “chasing highs and cutting losses,” filter out short-term news interference during the dollar-cost averaging period, and only review the holding cost and market trend once a quarter, adhering to the long-termism of “time for space.”
BTC dollar-cost averaging is the optimal strategy to combat human weaknesses with discipline, mechanically buying to reduce timing anxiety, ultimately achieving cost optimization through “buying more at low points and less at high points.”
