Based on the asset characteristics, market dynamics, and risk-return features of Bitcoin (BTC) and gold, combined with the latest macroeconomic environment and technical signals, the following professional investment portfolio plan is formulated. This plan aims to balance risk and return through asset allocation, leverage strategies, and dynamic adjustment mechanisms, capturing the long-term growth potential of both asset classes while hedging against systemic risks.
I. Asset Positioning and Core Logic
(I) Gold: Re-evaluation of the Value of Traditional Safe-Haven Assets
1. Anti-Inflation and Central Bank Gold Purchase Driven
In 2024, global central bank net purchases of gold will reach a record high, with Chinese insurance funds increasing their holdings by 35% year-on-year in Q1 2025. The US CPI rose to 4.2% year-on-year, and economic growth slowed to 1.5%, with stagflation expectations pushing gold above $3,200/ounce. Institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their target prices to $3,300-$3,570, potentially reaching $4,000 in extreme scenarios.
2. Geopolitical Safe-Haven Attributes
The Trump administration's tariff increases on over 60 countries have escalated trade frictions, with gold ETFs seeing a net inflow of $19.2 billion in a single quarter, and COMEX gold inventories surging 153% to 43.3 million ounces. Super-rich individuals are transferring gold to private vaults in Singapore, and geopolitical risk premiums continue to rise.
(II) Bitcoin: The Technological Revolution of Digital Gold
1. Halving Cycle and Institutional Fund Resonance
In April 2024, the circulation of Bitcoin will decrease after halving; historical data shows that the average price increase exceeds 300% within 6-12 months after halving. BlackRock and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF scales have surpassed $50 billion, with institutional holdings rising to 1.2%, and companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their positions.
2. Policy and Technological Breakthroughs
The Trump administration plans to establish a 'national Bitcoin strategic reserve' to push for the repeal of the SAB-121 act allowing banks to hold cryptocurrencies directly. The Taproot upgrade (June 2025) will expand smart contract capabilities, giving rise to new application scenarios such as DeFi and NFTs.
(III) Portfolio Logic: Risk Hedging and Complementary Returns
1. Negative Correlation Advantage
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to 0.2; during economic recession, gold leads, while Bitcoin explodes during technology recovery cycles, forming complementary returns. For example, when Bitcoin fell 11.8% in Q1 2025, gold rose against the trend by 19%.
2. Volatility Balance
Gold's 30-day volatility is around 2.8%, while Bitcoin's is about 12%, allowing for smoother short-term drawdowns in the portfolio. Historical backtesting shows that a 50% gold + 50% Bitcoin portfolio has an annualized return of 64.12% over ten years, with a maximum drawdown of 44.5%; a 70% gold + 30% Bitcoin portfolio has an annualized return of 48.18%, with a maximum drawdown of 32.63%.
II. Portfolio Construction and Capital Allocation
(I) Basic Configuration Model
Asset Class Allocation Ratio Core Logic
Gold 50%-60% hedges geopolitical and stagflation risks, capturing central bank gold purchases and technical breakthroughs ($3,200 → $4,000).
Bitcoin 30%-40% captures halving cycle dividends (target price $200,000), excess returns from policy easing and technological upgrades.
Cash/Stables 10%-15% to respond to black swan events (e.g., Bitcoin falling below $50,000) and margin replenishment needs.
(II) Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism
1. Rebalancing Strategy
- At the end of each quarter, adjust ratios based on asset prices; for example, reduce holdings when gold exceeds 60%, and increase Bitcoin when it falls below 30%.
- Trigger Conditions: If Bitcoin's daily price increase exceeds 15% or gold breaks $4,000, gradually reduce positions to lock in profits.
2. Extreme Scenario Response
- Risk Events: If Bitcoin falls below $80,000 (institutional holding cost line) or gold falls below $3,000, suspend leveraged trading and reduce positions to 50% of the base position.
- Opportunity Window: When the correlation between Bitcoin and gold drops below -0.5 (e.g., May 2025), increase Bitcoin positions to 45%.
III. Leverage Strategies and Technical Operations
(I) Selection of Gold Leverage Tools
1. Gold Futures
- CME gold futures offer 10x leverage, suitable for capturing short-term fluctuations. If gold price breaks $3,200 and trading volume doubles to an average daily level, chase up to $3,300 with a stop loss set at $3,150.
2. Gold ETF Options
- Buy GLD (Gold ETF) call options with a strike price of $330 (corresponding to a gold price of $3,300), expiration date December 2025, to hedge against upward risks.
(II) Bitcoin Leverage Strategies
1. Spot Leverage and Contracts
- Binance and Bybit offer up to 3x spot leverage; when Bitcoin tests the support level of $84,000 (MA200), build positions in batches, targeting $113,000 (breakout point of the ascending triangle) with a stop loss at $78,000.
- OKX perpetual contracts can open with 5x leverage; if Bitcoin breaks the resistance level of $107,000 and the funding rate is positive, chase the price up to $115,000, with a stop loss at $105,000.
2. Technical Signals
- Golden Cross: Bitcoin's daily MA50 crosses above MA200, and RSI is neutral to strong, indicating an upward trend.
- Head and Shoulders Bottom Pattern: If gold forms a double bottom between $3,100 and $3,200, the target price after breaking the neckline at $3,250 is $3,400.
IV. Risk Control and Fund Security
(I) Position Management
1. Single Transaction Limit
- Gold leverage positions should not exceed 15% of total capital, and Bitcoin contract positions should not exceed 10%, to avoid excessive leverage leading to liquidation.
2. Stress Testing
- Assuming an investment of $100,000, gold futures long position (10x leverage) entry price $3,200, stop loss $3,150, loss amount = $100,000 × (3,200 - 3,150) / 3,200 × 10 = $15,600 (loss rate 15.6%).
- Bitcoin contract long position (5x leverage) entry price $84,000, stop loss $78,000, loss amount = $100,000 × (84,000 - 78,000) / 84,000 × 5 = $35,700 (loss rate 35.7%).
(II) Fund Security Measures
1. Exchange Selection
- For gold trading, prioritize compliant platforms like CME and COMEX, and for Bitcoin trading, select Binance (with daily trading volume exceeding $700 million) and Bybit (deep support from market makers).
2. Asset Custody
- Gold is held through physical ETFs (like GLD) or private vaults in Singapore, while Bitcoin is stored in cold wallets to avoid exchange risks.
V. Market Sentiment and Event-Driven
(I) Key Time Windows
1. Q3 2025
- The Federal Reserve may initiate a rate cut cycle (60% probability), and liquidity easing supports Bitcoin's rise.
- The 'Tiered Connection Fee' model for gold is implemented, which may trigger price breakthroughs if MAU charging is executed.
2. October to December 2025
- The effect of Bitcoin halving cycles is released; historical data shows that prices increase by over 300% within 12-18 months after halving.
- If Trump's tariff policies escalate, the demand for gold as a safe haven will surge, while Bitcoin may face short-term pressure due to decreased risk appetite.
(II) Public Sentiment Monitoring Indicators
1. Bitcoin Positive Signals
- Weekly net inflows into spot ETFs exceed $1 billion, miners' holdings increase (Glassnode data), and Layer 2 protocol TVL grows by over 15%.
2. Gold Bearish Signals
- The US CPI fell below 3%, global central bank gold purchases decreased by 20%, and gold ETF funds have experienced net outflows for three consecutive weeks.
VI. Long-term Value and Exit Strategy
(I) Value Verification Indicators
1. Gold
- Global central bank gold purchases increased by over 10% annually, and COMEX gold inventories maintained above 40 million ounces.
2. Bitcoin
- Miners' hash power increased by 20% year-on-year, the number of active addresses on-chain exceeded 10 million, and the management scale of spot ETFs exceeded $100 billion.
(II) Exit Conditions
1. Technical Signals
- Bitcoin falls below $78,000 (institutional cost line), weekly RSI remains below 40; gold falls below $3,000 with shrinking trading volume.
2. Fundamentals
- Bitcoin has seen negative growth in on-chain transaction numbers for two consecutive quarters, and gold ETFs have experienced outflows exceeding $5 billion.
VII. Execution Discipline and Supplementary Notes
1. Trading Logs and Review
- Record the entry reasons, stop-loss and take-profit points, and emotional states for each trade, analyze profit and loss reasons weekly, and optimize strategies.
2. Regulatory Risk Warning
- The EU MiCA Act may restrict gold payment scenarios, and the US SEC's regulation of cryptocurrencies remains uncertain; attention should be paid to policy trends in Q2 2025.
3. Data Conflict Handling
- Different platforms have varying technical indicators (e.g., gold support levels of $3,000 and $3,200), requiring cross-validation with multi-source data, prioritizing authoritative platforms like CME and Coinbase.
Conclusion
This investment portfolio balances risk and growth needs through dynamic allocation between gold and Bitcoin. Gold acts as a 'shield' against stagflation and geopolitical risks, while Bitcoin serves as a 'spear' to capture the benefits of the technological revolution. Investors must strictly implement risk control measures, closely monitor macroeconomic and technical signals, and seize opportunities amidst volatility. Historical experience shows that cross-cycle asset portfolios can effectively smooth out drawdowns and achieve long-term appreciation, but caution is needed for black swan events and regulatory policy uncertainties.
