Preface
Bitcoin has completed three upward attacks at the daily level and successfully set a historical high. However, the momentum of the three waves of pushing has obviously decreased, and the price has remained at a high level for a long time. If there is no relay consolidation or chip recovery, it may turn into a distribution structure in the future. Although Ethereum has shown short-term explosive power, the daily pressure zone has not been effectively broken through and is close to the key level of 2,738. We need to be wary of liquidity hunting. Although the bullish atmosphere remains this week, risk signals have been released one after another.
Tether
Tether Prints Money
On 2025/05/21, Tether minted 2B worth of USDT on the Tron chain, and the funds were subsequently transferred to Kraken, Bitfinex, and Binance exchanges.
On-chain operation records: Related links
USDT Market Share
The current trend of USDT's market share is as shown in the figure. After the previous wave of pull-up, a triangular convergence was formed, but it did not maintain the original upward trend but fell below it. At present, this convergence can be regarded as the top. Subsequently, a range oscillation was formed. The upper edge touched three times and the lower edge touched twice. Currently, attention is paid to possible reversal positions in Fibonacci. Usually 0.786 and 0.886 are places where there will be obvious reactions in the oscillating trend. On the contrary, the other end is 0.214 and 0.114. If the market share of USDT reaches these two places, it is necessary to pay attention to whether BTC has a large-scale topping phenomenon.
Bitcoin
MicroStrategy buys BTC
On 2025/05/19, Michael Saylor announced on X (Twitter) that MicroStrategy bought a total of 7,390 BTC this week (average price 103,498).
Currently, MicroStrategy holds a total of 576,230 BTC (average price 69,726)
On-chain operation records: Related links
BTC Market Analysis
Looking at BTC at the daily level, it has experienced three waves of pull-ups in total, and has currently broken through the previous high point to form ATH (historical high). However, it is visible to the naked eye that the upward momentum of these three waves is getting weaker and weaker. If the upward trend is to be maintained in the future, it is bound to recover the rising chips through relay patterns or callbacks. On the other hand, the relative high point is also a position where the bulls will take profits. If the price remains in this range for too long, there is a possibility that large investors will transfer their chips to retail investors, forming a distribution trend and causing a decline.
In terms of the hourly trend of BTC, after the previous wave of decline, it is currently maintaining a range of fluctuations, with no obvious downward relay or reversal pattern. The lower and upper edges were tested twice and then recovered. The author suggests that it would be ideal to wait for more obvious price behavior before intervening.
Ethereum
ETH Market Analysis
In terms of the daily level, ETH's trend is quite drastic. First, there was a wave of decline, which formed three pushes. Later, it rose violently by about 1,000 points without an obvious reversal pattern. It is currently blocked by the pressure zone of this wave of starting and falling points, but compared with BTC, ETH's upward momentum is more obvious. The author believes that if ETH can continue to consume selling orders in this price range, there is still room for further increases.
In terms of hourly time zones, ETH is experiencing a very "oscillating rise" and it can be clearly seen from the trend that the price has formed a "quasi-bottom" during the oscillation process, which is not a bottom pattern that appears in a downward trend, but a relay pattern in an upward trend. Currently, the two waves of trends form an obvious equal high point - the yellow line (2,738). If the price reaches this position in the future, we should pay attention to whether there will be a liquidity hunting trend.
ETH's performance in futures data is very optimistic for bulls. The decrease in the long-short ratio and the increase in open interest (purple arrow) mean that a small number of people with more funds have entered long positions (large investors are long), prompting ETH to enter a stronger long performance in the short time zone.
The current price level of ETH falls in the pressure zone of the daily level. The range that needs to be paid attention to in the future is the 2,738 position mentioned in the previous paragraph, and the data changes shown by the orange arrow. When the long-short ratio rises and the position volume drops sharply in the future market, the big investors and dealers who entered the long position previously will exit the long positions in their hands. The exit of long orders = price suppression caused by selling at market price will have the opportunity to prompt ETH to form liquidity hunting.
Altcoin
Ether.fi project sold
On 2025/05/22 and 05/23, the address starting with 0xaa58 (Ether.fi project Core Contributors) transferred 500,000 and 250,000 ETHFI to Binance.
On-chain operation records: Related links
Conclusion
The current market structure has entered a critical turning point. Although there is no obvious reversal pattern on the daily line of Bitcoin, the high-level fluctuations have failed to effectively continue the trend. If the main chips begin to change hands, the risk of correction will increase. Ethereum maintains its trend structure and main long positions in the short term. After rising, it will test the daily pressure. If 2,738 fails to break through smoothly, and the long-short ratio increases and the position volume decreases, we need to be wary of the main position liquidation leading to price correction. Overall, this round of bull market has not ended yet, but the pace has slowed down and entered a critical turning point. The focus of observation should be on the changes in the behavior of the main players and the market structure.
