Should you buy Bitcoin (BTC) at a price of ~$104K USDT?
Technical Analysis
Trend: The daily BTC chart is consolidating around 104K after a sharp rise from ~$75K. The weekly MACD has formed a bullish cross (signal for growth). SMA (50/200) recently formed a "golden cross" (also a bullish signal).
Support/Resistance: Key support is around $100K (psychological mark, 50-day SMA ≈$97.8K). Nearest resistance is in the $104.5–106K zone (local highs), followed by the historical maximum around $110K.
Volumes: Trading volumes are decreasing (over 24 hours down approximately 13.9% to ~$44.6 billion), indicating a price consolidation phase.
Indicators: Daily RSI ≈75 (overbought zone). Daily MACD shows a bullish line spread, but its histogram has started to decline (signal of weakening momentum). Weekly MACD – bullish cross. Price is testing the 20-day EMA (~$105.5K); closing below it may lead to testing support at $100K.
Fundamental Analysis
ETF: In January 2024, the USA approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs. This attracted record capital inflows – for example, the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust raised nearly $6.96 billion since the beginning of 2025. The approval of ETFs supported rapid BTC growth (+120% to ~$100K in 2024) and increased investor confidence.
Institutions: After a ~–12% price drop in Q1 2025, some large investors took profits – hedge funds reduced their positions in Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, new players entered the market: several sovereign funds and universities increased or opened positions in BTC-ETFs. Experts note that overall institutional interest in BTC remains and has a "gradually accelerating nature."
Regulation: Many countries are developing regulations for crypto assets. For instance, India plans to publish a discussion on cryptocurrency regulations in June 2025 (following the global trend towards market legitimization). In the USA, the SEC continues to review applications for other crypto-ETFs (Ethereum, Solana, etc.) with expected decisions in 2025. There are currently few clear negative regulatory news regarding BTC.
Market Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Index is in the "greed" zone (~60 out of 100), reflecting traders' optimism. However, experience suggests that phases of "greed" often shift to corrections. At the same time, many analysts remain bullish: some forecasts suggest BTC could reach ~$200K by the end of 2025.
Conclusion
In the long term, Bitcoin looks promising: fundamental factors (ETF, institutional interest) are favorable, and technical indicators (golden cross SMA, weekly MACD) currently indicate an upward trend. However, the current overbought condition and weakening momentum signal a risk of a short-term correction to ~$100K. An optimal strategy may be to enter after confirming bullish momentum – for example, after a confident breakout of resistance around ~106K or on a local pullback to support at ~$100K.
Sources: Binance (CryptoNewsLand), CoinCodex, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Reuters, OKX, The Economic Times (India), Alternative.me (Fear & Greed).
