The current ETH price is fluctuating in the range of $2660-$2700, with a technical landscape showing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The daily MACD indicates a weakening of bullish strength, but there is still potential for an increase on the 4-hour level. The negative trend in the Bollinger Bands suggests that upward momentum may be exhausted. Key resistance at $2740 and support at $2550 should be closely monitored. The long upper shadow at $2712 indicates heavy selling pressure above, and caution is advised for a pullback to the $2550 support.
On-chain data presents conflicting signals: the staking volume has surpassed 34.55 million, accounting for 28% of the circulating supply, and institutions like BlackRock have increased their holdings via ETFs by $47 million in a single day, indicating strong long-term support; however, the inflow of ETH to exchanges has reached a one-month high, and whale holdings have decreased by 18,000 ETH, with USDT/ETH trading volume accounting for 38%, reflecting signs of some capital withdrawal. In terms of market sentiment, the perpetual contract long-short ratio is 1.45:1, with a funding rate of 0.062%, but imbalance in the derivatives market and whale trading may trigger volatility.
Operation suggestions
Short-term 1-3 days: If the price stabilizes above $2550 and trading volume rises to over 500,000 ETH, a light long position can be attempted with a target of $2700-$2740 and a stop loss at $2520; if a rebound to the $2700-$2740 range occurs without volume increase, a light short position can be attempted with a target of $2600-$2550 and a stop loss at $2740. Medium-term 1-2 weeks: A breakout above $2740 can lead to a long position up to $3100, with a stop loss at $2650; a pullback to $2400 provides technical support + whale cost zones for gradually building long positions, targeting $2600-$2700, with a stop loss at $2350.
Risk control: Single position ≤ 10%, leverage 3-5 times; use a tiered take-profit strategy with 50%, 70%, and 100% for partial exits; allocate 10% of funds for put options to hedge against risk during increased volatility.
Key news: The SEC's review of staking mechanisms, capital diversion in L2 ecosystems like Solana, and a technical breakdown below $2550 may lead to a dip to $2408.
Medium to long-term opportunities: $1800-$2000 is a strong support level; if market sentiment warms up, it may initiate a new round of increases, targeting $4000-$5000.
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