📍 A new ruling from a U.S. appellate court has reignited the global trade nightmare: Trump-era tariffs are officially being reactivated. Consequence? Asian stocks plummeted across the board, market sentiment evaporating in just a few hours.
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📌 The nature of the event:
• U.S. courts declared the restoration of tariffs on Chinese goods – which were once the primary trade weapon during Trump's presidency.
• Previous bans were issued to reduce trade tensions, but now… they are officially reversed.
• Recent bilateral negotiations between Washington and Beijing have been “stalled,” according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. A long-term trade agreement? Increasingly distant.
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📍 How is the market responding?
• China: The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 both fell by 0.6%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped by as much as 1.5%. Beijing led the decline – sentiment heavily damaged as hopes for a “decent tariff agreement” have almost vanished.
• Japan: Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.3%, Topix fell by 0.7%. Tokyo's market has another reason to worry: consumer prices in the city rose more than expected in May, raising fears of an interest rate increase from the Bank of Japan as early as July.
• South Korea: Kospi dropped by 0.5%. After being buoyed by NVIDIA's financial results, the tech sector reversed, led by chip manufacturers.
• Singapore & Australia: Straits Times fell by 0.3%, while Australia's ASX 200 closed almost flat. Weak retail sales led Australian investors to bet on the possibility of RBA interest rate cuts – but it may not come to fruition.
• India: One of the few bright spots. Nifty 50 futures rose slightly by 0.1% – indicating that the Indian market may open more positively, holding around the 25,000-point mark.
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📍 What lies behind the “tariff” curtain?
The issue is not in the tariffs themselves, but in the political and economic messages behind them.
• The Trump administration previously used tariffs to “pressure” China to concede in trade negotiations.
• But reviving tariffs in the context of an approaching election year? This is not merely a trade strategy – but a political blow.
• When a ruling from the court is used as a tool to reassert old power, the market should ask: Is the next period of macro instability approaching?
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📍 The “wave-making” statements of high-profile figures:
• Scott Bessent – U.S. Treasury Secretary: “Negotiations with China have stalled. But I remain confident they will resume.”
→ A statement that reassures yet discourages investors. If it continues, no one knows for how long.
• Former President Trump: “The Supreme Court will support my tax policies. And I am considering other legal avenues to reinstate them as early as July.”
→ This is not just a statement, but a warning: the market may be preparing to enter a summer… not so calm.
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📍 What should traders pay attention to?
• This is no longer a “temporary” shock – but the first sign of a new cycle of trade instability, likely to last.
• Tensions between the U.S. and China risk escalating again – particularly in areas such as technology, semiconductors, and exports.
• At the same time, monetary policy in Asia is starting to “turn around.” Japan may raise interest rates, Australia is hesitant to cut. Therefore, the market no longer has the support from central banks like before.
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📍 Asking the right questions:
• Is this a “news-driven” drop or the beginning of a larger distribution?
• When the market falls due to tariffs, who are the sellers – and who are the buyers?
• Why did S&P 500 futures drop by 0.3% even before the Fed's inflation report? → Because the sentiment is fearful, no longer stable as before.
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📍 Trader mindset at this moment?
• Don't follow the crowd: Most of the market is being driven by FUD from headlines. But those who actually make money are those who are ready for volatility.
• Observing macro money flows: Don't let short-term news obscure long-term trends.
• There are always beneficiaries in every drop: Are you a panic seller or a buyer when the market is shaky?
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📍 Conclusion:
This is a week of warning: the market is no longer “safe” like the previous quarter. The U.S.-China tariff event is just the first spark. The question is: Are you ready for the next blow?
