Currently, Ethereum is facing multiple challenges, with the Meme war, Layer2 backlash, and value reassessment pressures intertwining, forming a complex predicament. The following analysis will unfold from three dimensions:

I. Meme War: Solana's Dimensional Reduction Strike and User Exodus

The explosive growth of Meme coins has been a norm in the cryptocurrency market, but the competitive landscape has undergone a qualitative change in 2024-2025. Solana, with fees around $0.01 and a throughput of 4000 TPS, has become the biggest winner of the Meme season. Tokens within its ecosystem, such as MOODENG and PNUT, have seen daily increases of over 60%, driving on-chain DEX trading volume to exceed $2.05 billion, far surpassing BNB Chain's $1.056 billion. In contrast, Ethereum's mainnet still faces a Gas fee of $0.19 (despite hitting a five-year low), leading to a significant loss of Memecoin users.


A deeper crisis lies in the migration of the developer ecosystem. Data from Electric Capital shows that the number of active developers on Solana surged by 83% in 2024, while Ethereum saw a decline of 17%. Younger developers are increasingly inclined to deploy rapidly iterating Meme projects on Solana, a trend that is shaking Ethereum's 'developer-first' foundation.

II. Layer2 Backlash: Value Siphoning and Economic Model Collapse

The prosperity of Layer2 was originally a solution for Ethereum's scalability but unexpectedly triggered a 'backlash effect':


  1. Mainnet Hollowing: By 2025, Layer2 will handle over 60% of Ethereum's transaction volume, with Arbitrum alone reaching a TVL of $23.3 billion, accounting for 66% of the Layer2 market. Mainnet transaction fee revenue has plummeted, with the ETH burn rate dropping from 1.8% post-merge to 0.5%, weakening the deflation narrative.

  2. Token Economic Imbalance: Under the PoS mechanism, ETH's annual inflation rate is about 0.4%, but Layer2 has led to a shrinkage in mainnet Gas demand, with new tokens lacking destruction to hedge against inflation, resulting in a vicious cycle of 'inflation issuance + insufficient demand'. Standard Chartered has thus halved its ETH price expectation from $8000 to $4000.

  3. Security Model Challenges: Layer2 relies on the security of the mainnet, but a decrease in mainnet activity could reduce validator participation. If staking yields continue to fall short of expectations, it may trigger validator sell-offs of ETH, further impacting coin prices.

III. Value Reassessment Lifeline: Technical Bottlenecks and Regulatory Shadows

Ethereum's value anchoring is undergoing a triple test:


  1. Expansion Dilemma: Although the Dencun upgrade introduced EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding), reducing Layer2 data submission costs by 90%, the mainnet throughput only increased to 3000 TPS, far below Solana's target of 10,000 TPS. More critically, user experience has not improved significantly — regular transfers still require a 15-second confirmation, while Solana is shortening block finalization times to 100-150 milliseconds through its Alpenglow plan.

  2. Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC's determination regarding ETH's security attributes remains unresolved, and ongoing sales by Grayscale Trust are intensifying market pressure. In 2025, the spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of $42 million, while the Bitcoin ETF experienced an inflow of $8 billion, indicating a clear divergence in institutional funding preferences.

  3. Brand Trust Crisis: The 'Trillion Dollar Security Initiative' initiated by the Ethereum Foundation has been criticized as a marketing gimmick, lacking substantial technological breakthroughs. In contrast, Solana is reshaping the market perception of 'high-performance public chains' through the Alpenglow upgrade and Layer2 innovations.

Key to Breakthrough: From 'World Computer' to 'Value Settlement Layer'

Ethereum's breakthrough path needs to focus on three major directions:


  1. Accelerated Technological Iteration: Quickly advance the complete sharding solution of Danksharding to increase Layer2 throughput to 100,000 + TPS while optimizing user experience (e.g., reducing pre-confirmation delays to 10 milliseconds).

  2. Economic Model Reconstruction: Explore the linkage mechanism between ETH staking yields and Layer2 value capture, such as imposing a 'security tax' on Layer2 transactions to support mainnet validators, balancing inflation and destruction.

  3. Regulatory Compliance: Promote the inclusion of ETH into traditional financial regulatory frameworks through organizations like Etherealize, advocating for ETF expansion and institutional custody services to hedge against policy risks.


Ethereum is currently at a crossroads of 'value reassessment': if it fails to achieve technological breakthroughs and ecological balance within 12-18 months, its market share may be further eroded by competitors like Solana and Polygon. However, with a large developer base and the first-mover advantage of Layer2, Ethereum still has the opportunity to reshape its core value as the 'settlement layer of the digital economy' through a 'modular network'.

The market is continuously changing, and we are closely monitoring it to seize new entry opportunities. Like and comment to navigate through the bull market and firmly grasp this round of major opportunities.
$ETH $BTC

#交易类型入门 #加密市场回调 #币安Alpha上新